ch-ch-changes

by lboros on Feb 4, 2008 8:56 AM EST in News

those of you who've been reading this site for a while may recall that long ago --- like, 10 years or so --- i promised a few upgrades to the site; comment auto-refresh, better comment-input editor, yadda yadda. it was so long ago i can't even find a link to the damn post.

well, the time is nigh. no, really --- i mean it this time. but we're not talking mere upgrades; we're talking about a whole new platform, custom-built by SB Nation. it's the product of more than a year's labor, and it'll incorporate a whole range of new features suggested by bloggers and readers across the network. the changeover is due to happen sometime this month. i and the other front-page VEBbers have seen the beta, but the details are super-duper mega-confidential industry secrets; i'm really not allowed to describe the specifics of the new platform in advance. what i can say is that the new design is intended to make the user experience more streamlined and more robust; you'll have a greater range of options and an easier interface with which to choose among them.

keep an eye on Athletics Nation, our flagship site; the new platform will roll out there first, hopefully next week. our site will convert about a week after that.

* * * * * * * * *

pitchers / catchers report in less than two weeks, and kyle lohse is still out there. it's been assumed all along he would get a ridiculous deal, but the market obviously has shifted. he ain't getting 4 years / $40m at this point; the team likeliest to spend a lotta money on him, the mets, are no longer interested for obvious reasons, and teams that are still looking for pitching have plenty of other options (livan, josh fogg, kris benson) if boras makes unreasonable demands on lohse. boras might be forced to put lohse on the jeff weaver plan --- ie, accept a one-year deal and hope the market's more forgiving next season. should the cards jump in? according to ken rosenthal, the cards are no longer shopping for rotation help (scroll down to the second item) because they're so encouraged by what they see out of mulder, but if the price were right --- i repeat, if the price were right --- i would kinda like to see this guy in st louis. lohse is a true everyman pitcher in the mold of jeff suppan; indeed, supps is his #1 comp at Baseball Reference (with a very high similarity score of 980), as well as his #3 comp in the new PECOTAs. lohse is the same age (29) suppan was when he signed with st louis; their career stats through that age:

	gs	w-l	era	whip	k/9	hr/9
suppan	206	62-75	4.90	1.423	5.0	1.2
lohse	195	63-74	4.82	1.432	5.7	1.2

others in lohse's top 10 comps include joel pineiro, jason marquis, and todd stottlemyre; until recently, his #1 comp was chris carpenter, who also signed with stl at age 29. carpenter v lohse through age 28:

	gs	w-l	era	whip	k/9	hr/9
carp	135	49-50	4.83	1.510	6.3	1.1
lohse	195	63-74	4.82	1.432	5.7	1.2

what's the right price for him? a few months ago i pegged it at about $8.5m a year; PECOTA projects him as a 2.3-win player this year, which would put his price slightly higher than that. since coming to the nl in 2006 lohse has made 43 starts and posted an era of 4.61 with a FIP of 4.35 while pitching in two very hitter-friendly parks. in the more forgiving st louis ballpark he'd be a decent bet to put up a 4.30 or something on that order. . . . i'd throw him a 1-year offer at $10m and see if he bites.

my guess is this guy ends up with the astros, who are more desperate for pitching than the cardinals and more willing to overcommit to so-so players.

quick monday-morning hits:

david pinto did a quick-dirty analysis of the cardinal offense and estimated they'll score 4.76 runs a game --- which would be a big improvement over their 4.48/game average in 2007, a 4- to 5-win gain in the standings. by the same method, pinto guesstimates the brewers at 4.97 runs a game (no change from last year), the cubs at 4.96 (plus 0.32 runs/game), and the reds at 4.60 (down 0.23 runs/game).
the new set of PECOTAs includes only one player with bob gibson listed among his top 4 comparable players --- cory doyne, who briefly made an appearance on the cards' 40-man roster in 2006. the cards lost doyne to minor-league free agency after the season; he joined the baltimore organization and was dominant at AAA last year.
more PECOTA comp filler: the only player with lou brock listed as a comp? ichiro. . . . there is no player with albert pujols listed among his top 4 comps, nor anybody with tony la russa on his list. . . . dan haren's top 4 comps include 2 cy young award winners (fergie jenkins and pete vukovich), plus curt schilling and freddy garcia. . . . .chris carpenter's #1 comp is tex hughson (???). his #4 is tommy john; is that supposed to be some sort of a joke?. . . . .
keith law kinda sorta ranks the cards' farm system 16th out of 30, adding: "The Cards have a ton of guys I project as extra players --- fourth outfielders, utility infielders, middle relievers --- and I'm not sure how to value that appropriately."

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Lohse

He'd cost no compensation picks either and would go a long way to keeping us respectable maybe even half decent. Wainwright/Lohse/Pineiro/Looper--Mulder/Clement/Reyes could chew up some innings and has some upside from the 5 slot (potentially enough to move Looper back to his natural relief role). By no means is that great but there's not a good chance we'd have to sit through many Kipper/Ponson morale beatdowns.

Cheeseburger in paradise.

by joker24 on Feb 4, 2008 9:08 AM EST 0 recs

Adding Lohse

Seems reasonable given the uncertainty of the Cardinals rotation, though with the caveat of price.

Besides, the extra depth at worst is a hedge against Mulder/ Clement/ Reyes/ Looper not making it past 100 innings/ pitching with an era over 5. At best, the depth allows the Cards to trade from strength at the trade deadline with some extra starting pitchers in the fold.

by JMedwick on Feb 4, 2008 9:23 AM EST 0 recs

Hell Yea

Your not first to have this idea. Charley Walters wrote this in the Pioneer Press on Friday.

"The Twins have multiple choices if they decide to pursue a free-agent starting pitcher. Ex-Twin Kyle Lohse's asking price - really -was $11 million a year early this winter. Don't be surprised if he ends up with the Mets with a $5 million, one-year deal"

I would jump at the chance to get him for 1 year maybe with a team option for '09. Makes the rotation look solid, not great, but atleast not as many ?????? and if Mulder or Clement come back it gives us alot more flexability. If we are out of it at the deadline can you imagine what he would bring as a trading chip? I think, as lboros said if the price is right $8M to $10M and maybe an option for $12M or so, it's a no brainer.

MO make the call now, I mean like yesterday.

by That's a Winner on Feb 4, 2008 9:50 AM EST 0 recs

Re: Keith Law...

... are you really supposed to admit in print that you don't really know how to do your job?

seems like a bad career move. or, it would be, if anyone ever held the press to account for anything at all.

by kindred on Feb 4, 2008 9:53 AM EST 0 recs

AX

grinding..........

by boredatwork on Feb 4, 2008 2:54 PM EST up 0 recs

A ton of extra guys...

Well I guess you have to walk before you run.

The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Feb 4, 2008 10:35 AM EST 0 recs

I'm sorry,

but the mention of ten million dollars in the same sentence as the name of Kyle Lohse is kind of sickening to me. It shows what a sorry state MLB has fallen into with all the inflated monies being lavished on pure mediocre players who swap teams every year and collect 10 million for showing up sober. Go with what you've got and if that is not enough bring up Boggs, PJ Walters or anybody else that's eager for a shot...or finish fourth and and spend that 10 million in the draft on somebody that might be long term future. If Kyle Lohse won 10 games for you, he's want 12 million to resign. This silly game with big time agents is getting kind'a tiresome.

by ridgesee on Feb 4, 2008 11:00 AM EST 0 recs

FA Pitchers that are still out there

Bartolo Colon
Kyle Lohse
Livan Hernandez
Jeff Weaver

Current rotation:
Wainwright
Looper
Pineiro
Mulder
Reyes/Thompson

Who would you replace and with whom?

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Feb 4, 2008 11:12 AM EST 0 recs

exactly, Hardcore why bother

by ridgesee on Feb 4, 2008 11:29 AM EST up 0 recs

you forgot matt clement

the current rotation's wainwright, looper, pineiro, and clement, w/ mulder supposedly set to join it in may. here's what i'd do:

start the year with
wainwright
looper
pineiro
clement
lohse

if/when mulder is healthy enough to pitch in a major-league game, either a) go w/ a 6-man rotation until you sort it all out, or b) let mulder replace whoever is hurt / ineffective from among the #2 through #5 guys (wainwright stays no matter what).

if the point is that lohse is no better than the pitchers the cards already have, i disagree. they're counting on two injury reclamations (clement, mulder), one guy who's a few months' removed from a DFA (pineiro), and two second-year starters . . . . anybody with a healthy arm and a high likelihood of league-average pitching would be an improvement.

by lboros on Feb 4, 2008 11:30 AM EST up 0 recs

+1

I feel the same way -- he's a league average guy with very little injury history which makes him a safer bet than Mulder/Clement/Looper.

My post below explains how I'd handle it a bit differently, however.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Feb 4, 2008 11:38 AM EST up 0 recs

Something vaguely remembered about Lohse

wasn't there an article up last year by one of the SABR sites that Kyle Lohse was a well above average pitcher when he threw all of his pitches sans his 'best pitch', his curveball.

I seem to recall something about his curveball produced the most number of hits, XBH and non-missed bats.

Can anyone dig this thing up?

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Feb 4, 2008 11:47 AM EST up 0 recs

interesting

No luck with that particular bit, but Tim Dierkes' "Kyle Lohse career summary" says this:

In the spring of 2006, Lohse scrapped his curve to go with only his fastball, changeup, and slider. Somehow, he earned a rotation spot over Francisco Liriano out of camp. The new approach didn't work - Lohse was awful in April and earned a trip to Triple A.

by SleepyCA on Feb 4, 2008 1:21 PM EST up 0 recs

Maybe this was it:

http://blog.stats.com/2007/07/whiff_profile_kyle_lohse.html

Lohse has an eye-opening WHIFF rate for one particular pitch, and it's for all the wrong reasons. Lohse's curveball is currently drawing a whiff rate of .031. That is to say, he's coaxed just one (1) swing-and-miss out of the 38 swings hitters have taken against this pitch...a big breaking ball. This is not a good pitch. The opposition is hitting .500 against it, and slugging .607. Fortunately, this is his least used pitch, but it might not be a terrible idea to ditch it completely.

...

Fortunately for Lohse, his changeup has been a very good option. He's posted a .311 WHIFF, while the oppostion has hit only .184 against it, and slugged .298.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Feb 4, 2008 1:43 PM EST up 0 recs

If we didn't have so much bullpen depth,

I'd say Colon would make a lot of sense as a swingman at the right price--you either would get a damn good reclaimation deal out of him as a starter, or he would probably still be pretty effective as a reliever. He wouldn't attract a long-term deal, either.

by Valatan on Feb 4, 2008 11:39 AM EST up 0 recs

colon

according to reporter Bill Ladson,

"The last thing I heard is that Colon had nothing on his fastball while pitching in the Dominican Winter League. If you sign him, you have to give him a Minor League deal."

Cardwash - Cardinal, Washington fan (Washington???? Yeah, I know)

by cardwash on Feb 4, 2008 8:09 PM EST up 0 recs

I did forget Clement

my mistake.

God, this rotation in mediocre!

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Feb 4, 2008 11:43 AM EST up 0 recs

in = is*

Kill me now.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Feb 4, 2008 11:47 AM EST up 0 recs

right idea, wrong price

i think adding a suppan jr. is a great idea. i just think:

a) $10MM is the wrong price for suppan jr. (suppan signed for 2/6 + an option with the cards). i'd be more tempted to sign him for $5-$8MM. if he costs more than that i'd rather save the money for a future use (assuming of course ownership would choose to spend saved money instead of pocket it).
b) lohse is just as likely to turn in to kip wells as he is to turn in to jeff suppan. no numbers to back that up, just a gut feeling.
c) at this point i'd rather give the innings to reyes. i dont think he is going to fetch much in a trade so i'd rather give him a final shot to prove something.

by dmb60614 on Feb 4, 2008 5:12 PM EST up 0 recs

I agree

on all points. Reyes is not useless - in 11 of his 20 2007 starts he allowed scores in only 1 inning - his periherals say he deserves another shot.

by 2ndEdition on Feb 4, 2008 5:41 PM EST up 0 recs

i've long defended reyes

but he'll never succeed as long as la russa and duncan run the team.

by lboros on Feb 4, 2008 6:40 PM EST up 0 recs

I agree with you there.

Mr. LaRussa and Mr. Duncan don't want him. I believe they NEVER wanted him on the team. He is easy to trade-the Padres, Indians, and Phillies have all expressed interest recently. The Pirates tried to get him in 2006, and the Tigers drafted him but he didn't sign with them. There's five teams right there. I'd be willing to bet that the Nationals, Marlins, Rangers, and the White Sox would all be more than willing to take him off of our hands-that's nine teams altogether that I know of that would take him. There may be more. Mr. Mozeliak needs to bite the bullet on this one. It doesn't matter what he might do elsewhere. It may never happen for him anywhere. I'll always question the wisdom of our on field management trying to convert him to a groundball pitcher. It took away the part that WAS good about him. I really like Reyes, and I'd really like to see him get a chance to pitch on a team that actually WANTS him. Trade him already-it makes no sense to put him back in AAA. None. They should have traded him (AND kept their mouth shut!) when they decided they couldn't live with his style of pitching-that was a long time ago.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Feb 4, 2008 7:16 PM EST up 0 recs

hmm

there hasn't been any news stories with the nats' front office that has them having any interest with reyes. They're in no mood to trade prospects (they're minors ranked 9th according to Baseball America) And they have their rotation pretty much set up with plenty of their own minor league players trying for the 5th spot and plenty of guys to go to if someone gets injured.

Reyes is a good up-in-the-zone pitcher, but duncan is big on pitching down in the zone. Reyes didn't have to deal with pitching down in the minors and it's been hard for him to adjust to how duncan wants him to pitch

Cardwash - Cardinal, Washington fan (Washington???? Yeah, I know)

by cardwash on Feb 4, 2008 8:17 PM EST up 0 recs

keith law

And i have NO clue where Keith Law's little brain had the thought of ranking Washington 19th in his blog. Washington's minor league system almost blows the cardinals out of the water because their GM is almost 100% focused on the nats becoming an in-house-talent team, except for his love of ex-Reds players.

now if Keith Law was focusing on just AAA minor leagues (which he obviously wasn't in his blog) i could see him putting the Nats down a few ticks, but the nats have a ton of talent below AA ball that will kick butt in a couple of years.

Cardwash - Cardinal, Washington fan (Washington???? Yeah, I know)

by cardwash on Feb 4, 2008 8:25 PM EST up 0 recs

I said the Nats because they are kind of

sorting through some arms. I named them because it makes sense with the way they have gone about putting their club together. They have taken on everyone else's "problem children" and I do think they'd take him. They are giving veterans up-they are keeping the minor league guys. Mr. LaRussa likes veterans. Mr.Bowden would not hang up the phone if Mr. Mozeliak calls........yeah, I think they'd take him.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Feb 4, 2008 8:29 PM EST up 0 recs

Good Question

As was pointed out in the original post, if Lohse could be had for around $8 or $9 million for one or two seasons I would sign him, move Looper to the back of the rotation as a spot starter/long reliever, and wait for the inevitable Mulder/Clement injury to move him back into the rotation.

I think a rotation including Lohse would look something like this:

Wainwright
Lohse
Piniero
Mulder
Looper/Reyes/Clement

There's very little money tied up in that rotation, although Carpenter's dead weight makes investing another $9 million a year look worse. There's also some solid potential within that rotation...Piniero and Mulder could find some of their AL West form, Clement could show flashes of 2004, Reyes could prove he's the prospect everyone thought he was. I'm not a big fan of Looper in the rotation, so moving him back to the pen as a 6th and 7th inning guy could be beneficial to the entire ballclub, IMO.

As for the other guys on the list:

Colon -- the Cards already have three injury plagued guys (Carpenter, Clement, Mulder) why add another one?

Hernandez -- his best days are definitely behind him

Weaver -- great in stretches; terrible the rest of the time. He's a risk guy -- Lohse is more of a reward guy as you have a better idea of what you're getting, even if it costs a bit more.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Feb 4, 2008 11:35 AM EST up 0 recs

The problem with one year deals

for underachieving pitchers like Lohse or Weaver is what do you do with them if they seem to find themselves under Dunc's tutelage? At one time we probably would have signed Jason Marquis to a long term and pretty hefty contract had he been a free agent. That would have been disastrous. If we sign Lohse and he prospers, as he has for periods of time in the past, we would have to pay big bucks to keep him. Living in Minnesota I've seen enough of him to think that would be a mistake. I'd do it for a Clement type deal with a team option for a second year. I might also do it I guess for a good price for one year and, if he does well, take the extra draft choice and let him go. But I would not sign him for one and then throw big money at him later.
(By the way Larry, thanks for the link to The Dish. I had no idea it existed and I think both I and my wife will like it a lot.)

by easy on Feb 4, 2008 11:31 AM EST 0 recs

strictly a stopgap

i agree w/ you i wouldn't want to sign this guy to a pricey long-term deal, even if he's successful on the one-year deal. if he wins 15 games in 2008, let somebody else pay him $50m; just thank him for his services and take the draft pick.

the cards won't need him after 2008 anyway; they'll have carp back in 2009, wainwright pineiro and clement will still be under club control, and the farm system will be a year closer to ripening.

by lboros on Feb 4, 2008 11:35 AM EST up 0 recs

Phil Rogers

In the Chicago Tribune on Saturday.

"The Phillies and Mets could wind up in a bidding war for Kyle Lohse. He has remained unsigned because he insists on a five-year deal when three appears generous."

One year OK, two OK if it's a team option.
Three years and a bidding war with the Phillies and Mets, NO WAY.

I hope Phils wrong, he often is, because I liked the idea alot.

by That's a Winner on Feb 4, 2008 12:23 PM EST up 0 recs

Kyle Lose.... :=8/

I wouldn't spend very much mooolah on this noodle arm. Heck, you may as well sign Livan Hernandez to suck up innings, they're both # 4 slot pitchers at best. But it would be prudent to sign SOMEone; you can't have too many healthy arms these days, you just don't want to sell the farm (or the barn!) for that kind of insurance. Livan brings some intangibles as well; he's a vet, he's been around, he's been through the play-offs, and he's kind of a wacky guy, and he'd probably be cheaper than Kyle Lose, all positive things. All yer lookin' for is 10-12 wins at best and maybe 180 innings; both can give you that, except Hernandez is cheaper and brings moore to the table.

Anycow, that is this cow's humble opinion.

:=8)

Go Cards! :=8D

by MooCowMoo on Feb 4, 2008 1:17 PM EST up 0 recs

Livan can hit too!

I just would like to know how old he REALLY is...not sure I want him, but he'd be fun.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Feb 4, 2008 5:54 PM EST up 0 recs

Is Cory Doyne

someone we shouldn't have let go? Was it a mistake? Or is he another prospect no one can figure out?

by sdrone on Feb 4, 2008 12:09 PM EST 0 recs

doyne

I'd say doyne was like a reliver version of Dan Haren.

Haren was pretty good in the minors, granted he gave up 19 homers in 128 innings of AAA ball in '03, he just wasn't proven to be very effective whenever he was called up by the cards.

He did good for the A's, albeit still home run prone (31 homers in '06) but got it together real well last year.

I can see doyne becoming a good reliever for Baltimore in the coming years, he's just young. I think Doyne decided to go into free agency, i don't know why the cards would of just let him go.

Cardwash - Cardinal, Washington fan (Washington???? Yeah, I know)

by cardwash on Feb 4, 2008 8:45 PM EST up 0 recs

Tex Hughson

had a heck of a season in 1944- 203.3 IP, 2.26 ERA, 1.048 WHIP, and most impressively, only 4 HR's allowed...

The only real comparison to Carp that I see is that both had an apparent injury after an excellent age-31 year. I guess the pecota algorithm has better pattern-recognition skills than I do.

by SleepyCA on Feb 4, 2008 1:32 PM EST 0 recs

Pinto's projections...

The numbers he plugged in seem awfully optimistic. Basically a career year from Izturis (his lineup is guessing a .311 OPB and .345 slugging, his career average is .295 and .334)

And while I like Ankiel, even the most optimistic guess wouldn't give him a .334 OBP. And I don't think Barton will be a starter in LF (more likely Ludwick)

by DiscoJer on Feb 4, 2008 2:53 PM EST 0 recs

Swapping Ludwick for Barton

and giving him a conservative .834 OPS (I expect him to be in the .860's) and not changing anything else improves the range to 4.517-5.108, the high end of which is better than the '05's team run production...

I also think Duncan and Glaus are both very conservative estimates, and just assumed Brendan Ryan will get iz2's AB's ;)

Also, I don't feel that Ankiel was a reach; if anything, a .815 OPS is bit low.

by SleepyCA on Feb 4, 2008 5:00 PM EST up 0 recs

Tex Hughson

I'm not positive on this one, but I think David Halberstam discussed his arm issues quite a bit in "Summer of '49" (excellent book btw). I know he had shoulder problems, but after that my memory is a little hazy. I think he was the guy who at one point had so much inflammation in his throwing arm that his blood vessels were constricted. There was an anecdote about a trainer/doctor or something taking his blood pressure in his pitching arm and flipping out when it was astronomically high.

I think Halberstam also discussed his relationship with the Sox manager that year, Joe McCarthy, and how McCarthy was sure that Hughson was just a wimp and needed to suck it up. It's been so long since I read that one though that my memory is quite foggy.

"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.

by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 4, 2008 11:21 PM EST 0 recs

sure why not

the Cards are not going to get anything from Mulder or Carp this year, so if his price is 1yr, $10-$11 mil, i guess i could live with it.

they could do worse. they really, really could.

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Feb 5, 2008 4:00 AM EST 0 recs

incentives clauses, roster spots.....

with the budget at around 105 mil, and another 7 mil in incentives on clement and mulder contracts, where is the added 10mil for lohse coming from? i hope the budget makes it to 122mil range also, but what indicates it will before the season starts. we were 1 game back on sept 7th, 07. if we are again, did we pass at the trading deadline, because we are maxed out in dewallets eyes?
clement makes 12 pitchers w/out options on opening day, if ready. do we waive(DFA) reyes or thompson, so we can pay lohse 10 mil?
i need to see reyes in at least a mopup role for a half mil, before i pay 10 mil to lohse.
2007 lohse .447(SLG) /.786 (OPS)....reyes .464 / .802
those 12 doesn't even include mulder/carpenter.
1)wnwrt, 2)loopr, 3)wllmyr, 4)pinro, 5)izzy, 6)frnkln, 7)prngr, 8)flors, 9)johnsn, 10)clmnt, 11)reyes, 12)thompsn....dl/mulder/carpntr
Lohse? i pass.

by hard9fan on Feb 5, 2008 8:59 AM EST 0 recs

tyler johnson

i wouldn't have a problem stretching out johnson this spring and use him as a backup for clement as the 5th starter behind wnwrt, loopr, pineiro, wellmyr. using both flores brothers as situational lefties, (or a garcia thru the pen first). i know johnson can be a wild thing, so was arizona's johnson.
career slg% against.... clement .386, johnson .397, wllmyr 421, lohse .452, thmpsn .453, reyes .499
at least mlb wouldn't dig-in, as they do against lohse, thompson and reyes.
johnson could always go back to the pen when forced by a clement, mulder, carpenter contract.

by hard9fan on Feb 5, 2008 9:30 AM EST up 0 recs