confronting mortality
it's a day of mourning, and a great many cardinal fans' thoughts will be in tupelo. the comments thread is open for expressions appropriate to the occasion, if anybody wants/needs an outlet. but --- today only --- i will censor any and all discussion about the possible cause(s) of the fatal crash. that conversation can be resumed another day, for those who are interested; i hope any further dialogue will give rise to less aggravation than we saw yesterday morning.
the thread is also open for regular ol' baseball talk --- which, of late, has been a form of mourning unto itself around here. think back just one week, to last thursday --- the cards rallied from a 4-0 hole to beat the reds, 7-5, and win their second straight series. they were back within a game of .500 and beginning to look like themselves. the following night they rallied again, shaving 2 runs off a 3-run deficit and putting the tying run on 3d with nobody out in the 8th inning with rolen and edmonds due up. we were all feeling pretty good at that instant, no? that was only 6 days ago. alas, they couldn't get the runner home, zambrano beat them the next day, hancock died, and now the whole season is being written off.
i still think it's too soon to do that --- and i say so without cardinal kool-aid on my lips or rose-colored lenses over my eyes. i've watched every game; you don't need to tell me how awful the cardinals have been. they're having to confront their mortality in a baseball sense this year, as well as in the literal sense --- the cardinals as we have known them might very well be dead. but don't forget, they looked dead last year too, when they played four months of baseball as brutal as the one we've just endured. then, just as october began, jim edmonds got healthy. . . .
nobody is confronting his baseball mortality quite as starkly as jimmy. i wrote at the beginning of the season that "the fate of the st. louis offense may well rest in [edmonds'] hands" (see the last sentence of question no 2), and so far its fate has indeed mirrored his fate. if it's up to edmonds to bail them out, the outlook ain't so bright. at sports illustrated yesterday, albert chen had this statement from an unnamed scout:
and the truth is, there weren't many other options. there were only two viable centerfielders on the market --- gary matthews and dave roberts, the latter of whom i wrote about a few days after the season. matthews is past 30 and signed for too much money; roberts is only a couple of years younger than edmonds, and so far this year he's got a .655 ops. there was also some talk of shifting encarnacion to center field and signing a corner outfielder, but there were really only three good hitters on the market: carlos lee, alfonso soriano, and moises alou. all three are on the wrong side of 30 --- hell, alou is on the wrong side of 40 --- and lee and soriano both signed massive contracts that drew scorn throughout the baseball world. guys like dave dellucci and trot nixon and craig wilson were out there; they, too, are all older than 30. the indians signed dellucci for 3 years at $4m per --- an absolute steal --- but if the cards had signed dellucci to the same deal, dumped edmonds, and moved juan'cion to cf, how loud and long would the fans have howled "cheapskates!"?
the time to get younger was the 2005-06 off-season. it was the last time the cardinals had a surplus from which to trade --- a surplus of starting pitching. st louis was returning four "established" starters --- carp, marquis, supps, and mulder --- and had two rookies in the pipeline, reyes and wainwright. the plan going into the winter was to sign a pitcher and then trade marquis for a 20something outfielder --- names like kevin mench and brad wilkerson were being bandied about. but when the best pitcher the cardinals could afford was sidney ponson, they didn't feel they had sufficient depth in the rotation to deal from it. they also didn't feel comfortable handing a starting outfield job, or even a platoon role, to their 28-year-old reclamation, john rodriguez --- so they tapped the pool of so-so 30somethings and signed encarnacion.
the cardinals also may have toyed with the idea of trading edmonds to the yankees for robinson cano and chien-ming wang in november 2005, before the yankees landed johnny damon and while brian giles was still on the free-agent market. no telling how credible that rumor ever was; in light of subsequent events, i think there might very well have been some truth behind it. but even if that's the case, the rumor i heard is that the cardinals made the offer, and the yankees turned it down . . . . the precipitious drop in edmonds' skills may not have been entirely unanticipated.
if that's the case, then the front office's biggest mistake this off-season was in failing to acquire an adequate backup for a player they knew was at serious risk of washing out. they knew last november that edmonds and encarnacion were both ailing and might need significant help; their solution was to bring back spiezio wilson taguchi and schumaker, with the first pair supposed to provide offense off the bench and the latter two there to play defense. a month into the season, those solutions look pretty inadequate.
but they're not really the problem. edmonds is the problem.
is he a lost cause? at this time last season (ie, after 26 games) edmonds was nearly as bad as he is this season:
| AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | | | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| 2006 | 79 | 12 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 24 | | | .203 | .304 | .405 | ||
| 2007 | 76 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 19 | | | .211 | .294 | .289 |
the rest of the way last year, edmonds went .273 / .364 / .491. it's a different season and he's a year older; there's nothing to say he's going to heat up again, as he did in 2006. the odds are probably against it. but if he doesn't, we'll have all summer and fall to lament the fact and to discuss how best to untangle the knot for next year. why give up 26 games into the season? just a week ago things were looking hopeful; a week hence, maybe they'll be looking hopeful again.
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Comments
What the team goes thru this long thursday ...
by Urban Pawnee on May 3, 2007 9:34 AM EDT 0 recs
Musings
Still, based on early returns, the Brewers and Cubs will be battling for supremacy in the NL Central come September. I like the Brewers pitching, but I wonder if the defense might eventually betray them. The Cubs have a very good lineup, but the pen is scary and the bad Jason Marquis is lurking somewhere.
Re Jimmy, we have to remember how long it takes to recuperate a surgically-repaired shoulder. They are complex, fickle joints with many moving parts. But I agree that the brass could have hedged their bets better last winter. The Delucci deal makes me wonder if Walt was napping on this one.
by Hungry Jack on May 3, 2007 9:35 AM EDT 0 recs
They'll play better baseball in May
I can easily see Jimmy "breaking out" like he did at this time last year. My concern is that his shoulder is worse than what he lets on. Chances are he won't have the power that we're all accustomed to.
As far as this team goes - it may not happen this weekend, but they'll get re-focused. What happened to the "hard nine" boys? I just don't see a focused, tough-as-nails, grind-it-out mentality in this team. And the same core group of leadership is there.
Things will change for the better. Carpenter will pitch next week. The staff will have the stabilizing force back; hopefully to stay. I think that's a bigger lift than any of us can imagine. Who is the voice of reason in the rotation? Who can you count on right now, to every 5th day, give you the legit possibility of throwing a CG SO?
I just hope this team hasn't dug too deep a hole.
by silent_bob on May 3, 2007 9:39 AM EDT 0 recs
mourning
by cardsgirl95 on May 3, 2007 9:49 AM EDT 0 recs
Blame Game
I really appreciate everything that Edmonds has done for the Cardinals, but realistically, he's been in decline ever since that monster month (July?) he had in 2004. 2007 Edmonds is not the same as 2002 Edmonds, and should be treated as such, especially since he is coming off of two surgeries and possible lingering post-concussion effects.
They really need a better fourth outfielder that can regularly platoon with Jimmy, who right now is really looking like he could use some rest. I wouldn't be surprised if this is another case of bringing back a player from surgery/injury too soon, not that that has happened in recent memory. ;)
Seriously, I have to wonder if we'd be much better off shutting him down for a while, let him get the cranky shoulder back into shape, and then bring him back for the rest of the season. Yeah, it may be too late by then, but what is he really contributing now?
It definitely is too early to write everything off, but it doesn't look especially good either, pinning our hopes on our aging centerfielder. Jimmy and Scotty play so hard, I wonder what their play-adjusted ages really are?
Maybe we should just hook Jimmy up with Barry Bond's guys...
by sgfcards on May 3, 2007 9:58 AM EDT 0 recs
Edmonds
by raisin on May 3, 2007 9:59 AM EDT 0 recs
Actually
by Zubin on
May 3, 2007 10:13 AM EDT
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Edmonds' shoulder
by bdief on
May 3, 2007 10:33 AM EDT
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Yes, exactly
Adding a second year at 8MM was a big risk. Even if they get to defer a chunk of this years salary.
The hope now has to be from THIS POINT forward that Edmonds can have a .750+ OPS and play very good defense. That is possible and the Cardinals could win the weak NL Central with that contribution from CF.
by Born in 82 on
May 3, 2007 10:15 AM EDT
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I'm wondering how much Edmonds'
That said, I was behind his being re-signed this offseason. I saw no viable alternative and a $3M buyout and decided that he's going to be worth the extra $16M over 2 years. At the time, I thought it was the right call though it may turn out to have been a bad decision. As I see it, the Cards main problem right now is age and lack of productivity from our CF, our RF, and our SS and, unfortunately, I just don't see any help coming. I don't know how they're going to get out of this hole so they're just going to have to ride Edmonds and Eckstein for this season and cross their fingers.
by houstoncardinal on May 3, 2007 10:14 AM EDT 0 recs
I agree w/ CardsGirl95...
by CardsGirlInTX on May 3, 2007 10:29 AM EDT 0 recs
encarncaion
by gocards80 on May 3, 2007 10:31 AM EDT 0 recs
Play Wilson everyday
by MississippiCardMan on May 3, 2007 10:37 AM EDT 0 recs
Wilson is not an everyday player
by azruavatar on
May 3, 2007 10:52 AM EDT
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sigh
2007: .203/.242/.305
career: .263/.328/.468
and "is fast"
SB/CS, 2004-2007: 21/10; average of 5.25 steals/year.
so, whether you think his career "pop" will return or not, that obp has absolutely no business whatsoever in the 2 slot. none. at all. and if he "is fast" at this point in his career, he certainly isn't using it to steal bases.
aaron miles "gets on base"
career obp: .321
so yes, he does get on base. but not very often. by comparison, career obp of the two guys he would be replacing:
kennedy .331
eck .349
aaron miles also "runs well"
career SB/CS, in basically three full seasons:
18/11.
so, aaron miles, much like preston wilson, does not run either often or well, if we are measuring by stolen bases. maybe he hustles those three steps over to second for the flip on double plays?
i agree that rf and 2b/ss are areas needing improvement. preston wilson and aaron miles are not the right answers.
by nycbirdo on
May 3, 2007 11:10 AM EDT
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just trying to think of something
by MississippiCardMan on
May 3, 2007 11:18 AM EDT
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You forgot someone
by sherwood on May 3, 2007 10:37 AM EDT 0 recs
Well...
by mikedallas23 on
May 3, 2007 10:53 AM EDT
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I get no pleasure at all seeing
by MdRedbirdFreak on May 3, 2007 10:39 AM EDT 0 recs
Down here in Springfield
It's from 11 to 1 today. Should be interested to hear what Rooney has to say about everything, though I'm not really sure what the speaking part is focused on. I imagine there will be some talk of JH32. I'll post a diary if it's worth repeating. (I doubt it'll be anything controversial.)
by effin fisk on May 3, 2007 10:43 AM EDT 0 recs
Edmonds was only part of the puzzle
But my expectations were also that they'd go find a bopper to replace his waning power, either in RF or (less likely) at 2B. Obviously in retrospect it's not only his power that has waned, but I still felt the signing could be justified at the time.
by Hastur on May 3, 2007 10:44 AM EDT 0 recs
i don't have it in front of me
that having been said, my heart is no more in the outcome of this week's games than the team's appear to be.
by sdesserman on May 3, 2007 11:05 AM EDT 0 recs
I agree with Urban Pawnee
by Archaeopteryx on May 3, 2007 11:07 AM EDT 0 recs
Toast?
Larry makes a pretty good point when comparing Edmonds start last year to this year. Except look at the huge difference in SLG. He can't drive the ball anymore. If you can't run, and can't drive the ball you are going to need an extremely high line drive % to be effective.
I hope he comes around, but I won't be the "blue guy" waiting for him to do so.
by bobbyballgame1 on May 3, 2007 11:09 AM EDT 0 recs
The DL
by 3rdgencardsfan on May 3, 2007 11:09 AM EDT 0 recs
Not The DL
by 3rdgencardsfan on
May 3, 2007 11:10 AM EDT
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just talked to a customer in tupelo
by MississippiCardMan on May 3, 2007 11:21 AM EDT 0 recs
Tavarez
However, I read that when Lester comes back from the DL for the Red Sox, they will need to get rid of a pitcher via waivers or a trade since none of their pitchers have options left. Tavarez is listed as the main candidate to be let go and the Cards were listed as a team that would possibly interested in him.
What do you guys think? I've been impressed with the little I've seen from Jiminez and Dove so far but Tavarez would definitely give a boost to our bullpen. Plus, I always liked the intensity he brought to the ballpark everyday.
Thoughts?
by stltrav09 on May 3, 2007 12:46 PM EDT 0 recs
I like it
by jeff abs on
May 3, 2007 1:04 PM EDT
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Please do not
by cardsfanindenver on
May 3, 2007 2:26 PM EDT
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The bullpen is already stable
by Valatan on
May 3, 2007 2:50 PM EDT
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Edmonds isn't the only problem
Now if this is the player this team hinges upon, we were in deep trouble before the season started.
One starter batting over .300.
Our middle infieldres at .220 and .219
The void in right field.
The complete lack of any ability to hit a sac. fly or sac. bunt.
And let's face it... our team relied on Albert to win a lot of games last year. He's not the same this year. Maybe the Albert from last year will return. Maybe the organization will admit some Pujols injury. Whatever.
If you ask me, our trouble is not with Edmonds... its with a different person: Hal McRae.
by redbird2006in on May 3, 2007 1:29 PM EDT 0 recs
Walk your dog AND Pujols, AND Edmonds
I think Larry hit on it in one of his earlier posts---our batters' walk rate is alarming, isn't it? I don't blame opposing pitchers--if no one other than Duncan, Pujols, or Rolen are going to take you deep, then why not just come after everyone? We do need Edmonds in the middle of the lineup to be a threat to hit one out of the park, but I think that pitchers right now know that they can come after him, and even if he does make contact, he's not going to hurt them.
From the stats I have, it appears that Pujols is walking about 1 of every 10 plate appearances, where in the previous few years, it's been closer to 1 every 7. I would expect the opposite--people giving Albert the Bonds treatment until Rolen goes through a prolonged mashing period. I'm not sure if the chicken or the egg comes first here (do guys start getting walked because the rest of the team finds its power stroke, or do we start scoring and hitting for power because we're looking at more pitches). However, I just wish we had a little more discipline and could tire pitchers earlier and have more people on base to play small ball when necessary, or any ball, really, at all.
Maybe just a naive sentiment, but can't Hal just universally decree to work counts deeper? Just seems to me that everyone is very jumpy, and that, save Chris Duncan (whose plate discipline has been a delight to watch, IMO--it just feels like he works every count 3-2), everyone is up for their at bat looking to hit the first pitch.
Anyway, just curious if anyone else wanted to develop this discussion/saw the same thing. Also, thanks to all who make this site possible, it's one of my favorites.
by BrummerFanInStChuck on
May 3, 2007 2:03 PM EDT
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Here is a photo of Eckstein tagging out
http://images.sportsline.com/u/ap/photos/WIDH104050215_1024x768.jpg
by Hardcore Legend on May 3, 2007 1:40 PM EDT 0 recs
solid
by nycbirdo on
May 3, 2007 1:42 PM EDT
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was cuzzi the ump?
2006 WS for JB and DK57 RIP: Josh Hancock
by cardsfan84 on
May 3, 2007 1:58 PM EDT
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great picture
Still, it seems like almost every game there is a terrible call made against us. It's getting really old, and I feel whiny to even mention it, but it's so frigging consistent- I can't even think of a single play like this that has gone our way. At some point that has to change, right?
by SleepyCA on
May 3, 2007 2:07 PM EDT
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lboros
as far as this team, i just cant seem to care about these games, yesterday when speez and bennett were up with the bases loaded, normally i would be riveted, but yesterday, i just didnt care, i didnt even get excited when bennett hit the ball, even though for a sec it looked gone
i am sure that at some point i will care again, and i dont want people to think i am this way because of the losing, it is simply as lboros said the other day, we watch this to escape reality, and when reality creeps in as it did with hancock, and previously kile and buck, it just doesnt seem right to get excited about this game for a while
as far as the memorial today, i hope the players are able to get a little closure, not that any of their feelings will go away, but in my personal life, once a day like today is over, the healing can begin
if somehow this team is able to rally and play better baseball, great, but if not, that is ok too, they are in my mind a middling team at best, and after this, if they perform at that middling point or worse, they will get a pass from me
by bigcardsfan5 on May 3, 2007 1:48 PM EDT 0 recs
When was the last time
Its time to bring up Ryan Ludwick. The guy has had a great start down in Memphis. He can potentially add the pop that this lineup is missing. He could also add an ingrediant that this team is severely lacking, hunger. The guy has something to prove. He's had some monster seasons in the minors and you'd think that he'd be itching to get another legit chance in the majors.
If called up, LaRussa could use a modified platoon between him, Edmonds and Encarnacion once he returns. Having Encarnacion play CF and Ludwick play in RF against lefites. At this point I would think that it would be worth a shot. Especially since Edmonds' better days appear to be behind him.
I just hope the resigning of Edmonds doesn't come back to bite the team in the butt. And his contract is used as an excuse as to why they can't afford to pursue quality free agents.
by MarTeezy on May 3, 2007 1:50 PM EDT 0 recs
Today...
Re Edmonds, it would sadden me to see him go like this. I remember the days when he and Big Mac combined for over 80 home runs. I miss those days.
I think we probably should move Edmonds to the 2 spot and Duncan to the 5 spot. If TLR is going to shake up the lineup, that may be the way to do it.
Edmonds probably became my fav player when Mac retired. Now the MV4 plus Duncan are my fav players.
In the meantime, I hope that our offense starts producing.
In 2002, we won the division without our staff ace. Let's win it again this year for Josh.
While I want to give the team a free pass for this week, I just can't.
They've played poorly all year. Would it be the same with a healthy Juan, I have no clue.
2006 WS for JB and DK57 RIP: Josh Hancock
by cardsfan84 on May 3, 2007 1:57 PM EDT 0 recs
Also a longtime reader...
I've got hope that Jimmy will come back around. Obviously with his age and the two surgeries it's only a glimmer of hope but hope nonetheless.
Why?
Besides, the obvious factors, he's had a relatively slow start the past 3 years now and he didn't get much of a spring training at all this year. In fact, most of April was his spring training.
He's a proud ballplayer and I can pretty much guarantee that he knows he's not getting the job done and feels like crap about it. He wants to retire a Cardinal yes, but he doesn't want to go out like this. Like Zubin said above, he's going to do whatever it takes to bust his ass and get back in shape and if not, he may hang them up early.
Yes his swing is off, his power is diminishing and he doesn't have the hustle he once had, but there are signs of life. He's hit some balls pretty hard lately, (although to the opposite field) and can still take a walk (even though he has twice as many strikeouts).
If can goes .250 w/ 18 Hr's and 60 RBI's and an OBP of about .350 for the season, I'm a firm believer that his defense and leadership will make up for his lack of offensive production.
It's not looking so good right now, but if his body can get healthy again, he'll get there. It doesn't help that the whole team is in a funk right now and there's nobody hitting behind him.
Jimmy-woo-woo is not the only problem on this team right now, although I will conceded that he is a one of the larger ones.
by birds 4 life on May 3, 2007 2:38 PM EDT 0 recs
I've been meaning to ask....
I guess we'd have to bring someone up if we do that, and that may not be in the cards.
Man this Instant Breakfast wrist issue is affecting a lot of outfield stuff.
by sdrone on
May 3, 2007 2:49 PM EDT
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Jimmy Baseball
by cardsgirl95 on
May 3, 2007 2:55 PM EDT
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There seem to be a lot of rookie commenters
by effin fisk on
May 3, 2007 3:20 PM EDT
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Yeah...
Everyone around here seems to be so damned knowledgeable about the game, I was a bit intimidated to post anything actually. I'm not really a stat guy although I've been a die-hard Cards fan since I was born (except in the dark years in the 90's when I was a teenager). I am finally getting around to reading Moneyball though so that's a start.
by birds 4 life on
May 3, 2007 3:50 PM EDT
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great to see you
by nycbirdo on
May 3, 2007 5:57 PM EDT
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I don't know anything
by effin fisk on
May 3, 2007 8:47 PM EDT
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as much as we all want change
by punchinjudy on May 3, 2007 3:04 PM EDT 0 recs
How pathetic am I?
"oh, 2006 playoffs, you make me forget the troubles of today....soooo soothing...thank you for making me remember the happy times", he says while shaking back and forth in the fetal position.
by cardsfaninmass on May 3, 2007 3:09 PM EDT 0 recs
Joe Buck....
Ohhhhhh....Good times!
by cardsfaninmass on
May 3, 2007 3:16 PM EDT
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No...
by cardsfaninmass on
May 3, 2007 4:00 PM EDT
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Media
I stopped going to the STLtoday threads cause they were way to neg, i think some not all of it has to do with Bernie at least in his forum...sometimes he would rant like a little kid on these guys epsecially AP.
I really didnt like his Article today. I get what he's saying about teams owning responsibility. However is it appropriate to list all those names today? why not do a great piece on Josh? It's nto like the alchol angle is being overlooked.
Also really Is a footbal team responsible for a player they cut getting hammered and then getting hurt in a car accident? Perhaps its todays society. Don't blame the individual blame thsoe he worked for, they should have been aware of this or that. In some cases probably in all probably not.
It is the medias job to give us the scoopand news etc, but should the families like those in the VT tragety really ahve to ask NBC tostop playing the vid over and over just days after the massacre?
Just my opinion kind of in response to someonewho talked about STLmedia earlier then i went and read Bernie.
by punchinjudy on May 3, 2007 3:18 PM EDT 0 recs
Hancock Memorial Service
http://media.myfoxstl.com/live
by Hardcore Legend on May 3, 2007 3:21 PM EDT 0 recs
thanks
by punchinjudy on
May 3, 2007 3:24 PM EDT
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I'm not seeing Albert
Very touching service.
by Hardcore Legend on
May 3, 2007 4:01 PM EDT
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Nevermind
by Hardcore Legend on
May 3, 2007 4:04 PM EDT
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strauss
by punchinjudy on May 3, 2007 3:23 PM EDT 0 recs
nice the pastor
by punchinjudy on May 3, 2007 3:34 PM EDT 0 recs
Thanks, Hardcore Legend
by cardsgirl95 on May 3, 2007 4:33 PM EDT 0 recs
memorial, edmonds, and what not
Watching the memorial service for Josh - very touching and nice - a good sendoff. Perhaps this is what they need. Perhaps now with the final goodbyes (so-to-speak), they'll regain some focus, get some of that drive back, etc. In Edmonds case, I'm sure the loss has him thinking about DK... not saying that's the excuse, but I'm sure it plays at least a small role. Like you said Larry, next week they just might start looking hopeful again.
As for Edmonds, the offense (or lack thereof) and the lineup... I don't think it's SO terrible. Problematic, yes, but not completely hosed, as some might say. Edmonds is aging. That's a fact. Does he HAVE to drive the ball to right field? Couldn't he use his veteren knowledge to his advantage and become a solid RBI guy - Spraying the ball to all fields, going the opposite way more often, getting singles and doubles and driving in runs? Duncan is there, waiting in the wings to take his place as the "power." If you moved Duncan to the 4-spot, based on his much improved patience at the plate, you'd get some youth and offense back in the heart of the order. Then move Edmonds down to the 6-hole - make him your RBI guy - not so much raw power, just getting base hits to get those guys on base in. I don't have the offical numbers or stats on his "clutch" performances of past... maybe I just like the look of a 3-4-5-6 of Pujols, Duncan, Rolen, Edmonds... Or bat him 2nd - let him see some better pitches batting in front of Pujols. Either way, moving Duncan down might help spark some of that drive into coming back.
Just my two cents.
by SmashedAtoms on May 3, 2007 4:45 PM EDT 0 recs
oops...
Meant to add to this before posting - If we're still in last place (let's say 10 games or so behind) by the All-Star Break - then I'm officially concerned.
by SmashedAtoms on
May 3, 2007 4:51 PM EDT
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JEd
I think he'd be the first to tell you that.
by Urban Pawnee on
May 3, 2007 5:09 PM EDT
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