lonely little game
the irony. after nearly a full season of skepticism, emphasizing the cardinals' flaws and waving red flags -- their lousy strikeout rate, their negative homerun differential, their imbalanced rotation and misappropriation of roster resources -- after months and months of, in essence, issuing "sell" recommendations on st louis cardinals stock, i come to find that, at the very end, i may have overestimated this team.
i knew they weren't good, but i thought they were good enough to win the division. now i'm not so sure.
as the astros have gotten closer and closer and closer -- and as the st louis bats went limp, the izzy-less bullpen disintegrated, the staff ace faltered -- even as all those things happened, the cards always had dumb luck and the schedule on their side. but luck is no longer quite so one-sided an asset, and they can't run the clock out on the schedule. the astros want this; they're really playing for something. whereas the cardinals seem to want nothing more than a negative -- ie, they want not to go down as the biggest chokers in history. houston's got the initiative, and that might prove to be more important than the one lonely little game in the loss column the cardinals still possess.
if i turn out to be wrong and the cardinals finish 2d, i'll accept the verdict of the scoreboard; it don't lie. whatever their fate turns out to be, they will have earned it -- and i will be able to live with it. i suggested a few days ago that the cardinals' last 7 games amounted to a de facto playoff series -- win 4 of the 7 and they (probably) advance. they're now down in that "series," 2 games to 1; they need 3 more wins. they'll have up to 5 games to get them. if the cardinals aren't up to that very small challenge, then they don't belong in the playoffs -- plain and simple.
i mean, they don't belong in the playoffs anyway -- not under any circumstances, not even if they win out. in a best-case scenario, the cardinals will finish with 85 wins; relying strictly on memory, i think that would make them the 4th-worst postseason team of all time, after the '05 padres (82 wins), the '73 mets (also 82), and the '84 royals (84). they currently have the 13th-best record in baseball; they'd be no better than a 3d-place club in any of the 5 other divisions, and a 4th-place club in two of'm. the texas rangers still have a chance to flag down the cardinals in the win column on this final weekend.
they already don't belong in the playoffs.
so if the cardinals do, in fact, miss the playoffs, i won't lose a minute of sleep over it. the guys losing sleep will be the new york mets and all their fans. you think they want to face clemens oswalt and pettitte? they're all rooting like hell for the cardinals -- probably harder than some of us are. they, not we, may be the real losers if st louis completes its collapse. i daresay even some of those american league teams are pulling for our guys; of all the nl teams they might wish to avoid in the world series, houston probably ranks at the top of the list. just what we've always wanted -- the whole baseball world is rooting for the cardinals!
if it should come down to a one-game playoff between st louis and houston -- an increasingly likely scenario -- the projected pitching pairing would be jason marquis vs roy oswalt. after last night's game, la russa wouldn't commit to naming marquis as his starter; it seems to have dawned on him, somewhat belatedly, that jason isn't very good and that he, as the manager, has the discretion to use another pitcher. marquis' era now stands at 6.02; unless he gets in for another couple of (scoreless) innings between now and sunday/monday/tuesday, he will set a new record for the worst era in franchise history by an era qualifier. that's a 77-year-old record, set in 1929 by bill sherdel, who posted a 5.93 era. since 1950, only 12 qualifiers in all of baseball have posted worse era's than 6.02 -- and 4 of those guys pitched in coors field, including darryl kile, whose 6.61 era in 1999 is the 4th worst since 1950. also on the list is our own chris carpenter (6.22 in 2000 for toronto, 7th-worst). heck, dave n' tony turned kile and carpenter around; maybe . . . . . ?
just kidding.
jason's 16 losses are the most by a st louis pitcher since 1990, when the last-place cardinals had two 17-game losers (magrane and deleon). if tony comes to his senses and finally cuts bait on marquis, here are are his options for tuesday:
- weaver on three days' rest
- narveson
- thompson
- sosa
- hancock
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comments
Comments
The truth hurts
Is TLR's future in question if we pull "the biggest collapse ever?"
by wildman on Sep 29, 2006 9:13 AM EDT 0 recs
Couldn't Agree More
so if the cardinals do, in fact, miss the playoffs, i won't lose a minute of sleep over it. the guys losing sleep will be the new york mets and all their fans. you think they want to face clemens oswalt and pettitte? they're all rooting like hell for the cardinals -- probably harder than some of us are. they, not we, may be the real losers if st louis completes its collapse. i daresay even some of those american league teams are pulling for our guys; of all the nl teams they might wish to avoid in the world series, houston probably ranks at the top of the list. just what we've always wanted -- the whole baseball world is rooting for the cardinals!"
I couldn't agree more. I have a friend who's a Mets fan and he's scared shitless that the Astros are going to make it and steamroll everyone else in the NL playoffs. He's rooting for the Cardinals pretty hard now, especially considering the latest developments with Pedro. Imagine if the Mets had pulled off that trade deadline deal and acquired Oswalt? We wouldn't be talking about the Astros right now.
I hope we miss the playoffs and it wakes management up. Is it even worth making the playoffs at this point? The team is a shell of its' former self. I think it's better to not make it and avoid suffering the humiliation of a first round knockout by San Diego or the Mets or whoever we'd end up playing.
by I Bleed Cardinal Red on Sep 29, 2006 9:17 AM EDT 0 recs
Mood Rings and Thermometers
This forum features the voices of grim realists, and rose-colored optimists, and all the shades in between. I count myself closer to the former than the latter. Being a baseball fan since '67 has taught me how many ways things can go wrong, if nothing else.
My first reality check this season came during the Great Trampling of June, when the Cards visited the South Side, then Detroit, then experienced further ignominious humiliation at the hands of the ROYALS, and so on. The ship listed then, and has never quite righted itself. At that point, I experienced the bitter deja vu of the '04 Series, and overwhelming feelings of being mismatched (outgunned?). My first sensations of "this-team-may-make-the-playoffs-but-do-I-really-want-to-go-through-this-kind-of-rout-again?" surfaced. If nothing else, the LaRussa years have made us somewhat accustomed to October baseball (Hello, Cub fans!), imbuing us with a "Hey, no big deal, bring it on" attitude. Playing these first and second rounds is no longer the end-all scenario. We expect bigger things. 100 win seasons will do that to you. But with this team, after that horrible stretch in June, I suddenly lost my great reserve of October Anticipation. It just didn't feel right. I waited for the team to prove me wrong in July. In August. In September. But, aside from a few glimmers of competence (thank you Albert and Chris) they haven't.
by Urban Pawnee on Sep 29, 2006 9:24 AM EDT 0 recs
Somebody start a fight....
Last night, I was hoping and praying that Duncan would've punched Marquis out there. Knock him on his rear, and show the rest of the club that they deserve better than that "I don't give a rip how I pitch" Jason Marquis. I have stood up for players that just didn't play well; shoot, I even stuck up for Mulder this year, but for crying out loud, the whole team walks into the ballpark knowing they are gonna have to push for double digits at the least, whenever JM was pitching.
I still cannot believe that he has gotten worse and worse (wanton profanity omitted for the sake of other readers).
So, our season comes down to Weaver. Hopefully we can get Blondo a lead, and hopefully he looks far better than that (wanton profanity omitted again) thing we had on the mound last night.
And to think, Redbird fans started the season booing Encarnacion and Izzy!
by fuegophil on Sep 29, 2006 9:25 AM EDT 0 recs
That's great ...
by Urban Pawnee on
Sep 29, 2006 9:29 AM EDT
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agreed
by redrey on
Sep 29, 2006 12:03 PM EDT
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Question
I still can't help but think that this team will get it done. (of course, I didn't watch last night's game either). We can't win 2 of 3 at home vs. Milwaukee w/ Weaver, Suppan, and Carp going? I can't see the Astros sweeping the Braves and extending their winning streak to what, 11? Too far fetched. We may have to play Monday but I still think we'll get it done. Maybe this season's driven me completely insane.
by houstoncardinal on Sep 29, 2006 9:28 AM EDT 0 recs
yes, the one-gamer
by lboros on
Sep 29, 2006 9:35 AM EDT
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Screw that...
by Quietude on
Sep 29, 2006 11:27 AM EDT
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There was an awards dinner late last year
Rolen was standing - he didn't grab a seat for some reason. Gibson had just sat down near him; someone asked Rolen why he hadn't just grabbed that seat.
"I was afraid Gibson would kick my ass."
by sdrone on
Sep 29, 2006 11:43 AM EDT
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This team really needs...
by Quietude on
Sep 29, 2006 12:09 PM EDT
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or the talent
by sdrone on
Sep 29, 2006 1:41 PM EDT
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I was there
by liam on
Sep 29, 2006 2:01 PM EDT
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A one game playoff
One other thing to consider. Lets say:
St. Louis goes 1-3 in it's last four
Houston goes 1-2 in it's last three
Cinci goes 3-0 in it's last three (vs Pittsburgh)
Now you've got a three way even after the Monday Cards/Giants game.
The possibilities are facinating.
by brianp88 on
Sep 29, 2006 9:38 AM EDT
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there could also
i bet fox would love that . . .
by lboros on
Sep 29, 2006 9:41 AM EDT
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Its unlikely the Cards or Houston can catch the wi
by Zubin on
Sep 29, 2006 3:22 PM EDT
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Management
The apologists will point to injuries. Honestly, how can we not give them SOME credence. Any team that loses their 2nd or 3rd best bat, a gold-glove center-fielder, their leadoff hitter, their #2 starter, and their closer SHOULDN'T win.
Take Oswalt, Taveras, Burke, and Lidge from the 'Stros, and you basically have no team left. Notice that their dramatic comeback has coincided with the rebound of the team's health. The basically got Clemens back from the DL after the All-Star break.
From this point of view, we should be ecstatic that we even have a chance to make the playoffs. The Cubbies have seen much the same injury trouble we have seen, and they have fallen to the worst team in the national league.
With that being said, I still believe that TLR has to take SOME of the blame for the gross mishandling of this team. LaDuncan had to know that Izzy was hurt earlier in the year. Maybe if they shut him down for a month earlier, he could have come back. AT LEAST he could have had his surgery and been ready for opening day next year. Heck, I don't know, maybe we are all scapegoat hunting, and it is easy to villify the manager. I'll use the Cubbies again. Dusty Baker took a thin, aging Giants team to the playoffs time and time again, even with personalities like Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds in his clubhouse. Now, the Cubs can't keep a healthy pitcher, Lee goes down with injury too, and somehow it is Baker's fault that the Cubs can't win with what amounts to a triple-A ballclub!?
Look, as I see it, I very much agree with you LBoros, if, in April, we were told that we would hold a 1/2 game lead over the 'Stros, wouldn't we be satisfied with that? I mean, most of the pundits and even us, the fans, expected us to win the division, but with a razor-thin margin of error.
Anyhoo, I still think that TLR is not the man for this team any longer. We have gotten younger, and he cannot manage young players. I hope for our sake that we don't trade away all our great young talent just to keep LaDuncan happy next year. I can handle inconsistency from young guys. They will learn how to win. I am really excited about a future team with Pujols, Wainwright, Reyes, Duncan, Hancock, Narveson, and company. We just have to be willing to endure a bump or two in the road to get there.
Lboros, sorry for my continued rantings, but it sure does make me feel better. Thanks for the great site!!!
by Eckstreem on Sep 29, 2006 9:42 AM EDT 0 recs
You also have to look at management
The fact that management didn't pick up more guys to bail us out as the ship was sinking just seems to indicate that they thought that what we had and making it to the playoffs (cross your fingers::hopefully).
Obviously there are plenty of people who have at least some measure of responsibility. You'd think the ownership would be willing to spend a little more money this year just so that people wouldn't associating us not being that great with the new ball park and new radio station.
by dontEATnachos on
Sep 29, 2006 10:14 AM EDT
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I don't want to sound like a TLR apologist
I know that, given the precipitious dropoff in talent as you go down this roster, let ALONE go down the pitching staff, I couldn't have done crap with this team.
OTOH, that makes me appreciate the bright spots. All hail Reyes, Wainright, and Duncan. And maybe even some of our young/cheap relievers.
by sdrone on
Sep 29, 2006 10:33 AM EDT
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I'd add
by sdesserman on
Sep 29, 2006 12:00 PM EDT
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Sunday's start
On the subject of the rotation, if anyone is interested, I've got a diary here making the case that, if the team has a chance to clinch Sunday, it might make sense to hold Carp until Monday. No evidence that Tony is listening to me.
by DCGreg on Sep 29, 2006 9:45 AM EDT 0 recs
I say no
by houstoncardinal on
Sep 29, 2006 10:43 AM EDT
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but it won't
by DCGreg on
Sep 29, 2006 12:23 PM EDT
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play with some rage or something
on a side note, if by some miracle we make the playoffs marquis will be upset he is not on the playoff roster, marquis is clinically insane. if he had sanity he would not be able to show his face to his teammates EVER again. id like to see him committ sepuku myself. you are garbage marquis. go home.
by 2ndprize on Sep 29, 2006 9:59 AM EDT 0 recs
Can we...
Seriously, it's well past time to give up on him, and yet I have this horrible feeling that he's going to get re-signed because of a weak FA pitching market.
by Quietude on Sep 29, 2006 10:04 AM EDT 0 recs
I don't have high hopes
by MdRedbirdFreak on
Sep 29, 2006 10:07 AM EDT
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Don't forget
by OKCardsfan on
Sep 29, 2006 11:02 AM EDT
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NOT THE DUCKS!
by Quietude on
Sep 29, 2006 11:24 AM EDT
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Haha

by dontEATnachos on
Sep 29, 2006 11:49 AM EDT
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Well now that's just ridiculous.
by Alxfritz on
Sep 29, 2006 11:58 AM EDT
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That is classic.
by Quietude on
Sep 29, 2006 12:11 PM EDT
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Did
by OKCardsfan on
Sep 29, 2006 12:33 PM EDT
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nah
Can you imagine the Halloween haunted house that has people dressed up as Jason Marquis running at you with a contract extension and a pen. Frightening.
by dontEATnachos on
Sep 29, 2006 12:44 PM EDT
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i'm laughing so hard...
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on
Sep 29, 2006 2:27 PM EDT
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Rough Week
"Minnesota's victory and Detroit's loss creates a tie for first place in the AL Central. It's the first time this season that the Twins (who've played 159 games) have been in first place. It's the latest point in a season that a team reached first place for the first time. The previous record was held by the 1964 Cardinals, who gained a share of the top spot for the first time following their 158th game."
by Cardinal70 on Sep 29, 2006 10:10 AM EDT 0 recs
lets at least learn from this...
i just dont understand how tony la russa teams can have these collapses. in the WS in 2004, that NLCS with atlanta, he even got swept with an A's team by a vastly inferior reds team.. maybe tony should change the way he goes about approaching and preparing his teams for playoff situations.
by 2ndprize on Sep 29, 2006 10:23 AM EDT 0 recs
Bingo.
by Zubin on
Sep 29, 2006 3:24 PM EDT
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why I *need* the Birds in the playoffs
He asked, almost pathetically, "When do I get to start razzing the Cardinals' fans? The Cardinals haven't won a World Series since 1982."
This is the primary reason I need the Cardinals to make the playoffs. Obnoxious Cubs fans (not all, just the obnoxious ones) will be talking about 2006 for years if they think they had any hand in keeping the Cardinals out of the postseason.
Looking at the season as a whole body of work, I completely agree with lboros that the Cardinals don't deserve an appearance in the postseason. However, if they can pick themselves up and dust themselves off and make it in, they'll "deserve" it in the sense that when they had to (this final weekend), they won. (Sort of a relative maximum thing.) If they don't, it's gonna be a long offseason.
Quietude, MdRedbirdFreak: I'm starting the rumor right now that TLR is planning to teach Marquis to play middle infield so he can keep his bat on the roster for 2007. :-)
TSF
by TedSimmonsFan on Sep 29, 2006 10:29 AM EDT 0 recs
And when they talk about it
by sdrone on
Sep 29, 2006 10:35 AM EDT
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Cub Fans ...
by Urban Pawnee on
Sep 29, 2006 10:36 AM EDT
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But the Cubs
by rockin redbird on
Sep 29, 2006 12:50 PM EDT
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All good points, but
However, Alberticus Maximus and Preston Wilson took care of last night and somebody (didn't get to see the last 3 innings today) took care of today, so hopefully, at this point, my concerns are moot.
TSF
by TedSimmonsFan on
Sep 30, 2006 5:18 PM EDT
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So I Go
The Astros are in town tonight, of course, and it appears as though they are riding in like a rabid foal. It just dawned on me this morning ... I mean, not that they are coming to town .... but after all the sleep I've been losing in the last week-and-a-half; after all the silent moments on my couch, in front of the TV, in the dark of the room, letting the remote fall uselessly from my lap, without the energy to pick it up; with the rally cap turned in and then back out and then several more rally caps drug out of the back of the closet; with my framed Busch Stadium picture from 1996 collecting dust on the wall (the year they brought the fences in and put the grass in and started playing Baseball Like it Oughta Be played); the Post-Dispatch white playoff towels; the seats I ordered from old Busch; you know, all these things, these reminders, they are just too much to absorb every day and not wind up in this situation and not get my ass up and take it to Turner Field, where I will be tonight, representing everyone here--the anger of everyone here; the frustrations of everyone here; the hopes of everyone here ...
and I'll have a cold beer in my hand, and I'll be sitting somewhere cheap, but I'll be louder than anyone in a half-empty Turner Field screaming for the Braves to kick the Astros' ass and for the Cardinals to make the playoffs.
by AtlantaBird on Sep 29, 2006 10:29 AM EDT 0 recs
That's the spirit!
by Valatan on
Sep 29, 2006 10:50 AM EDT
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another Atlanta Cards fan
by wildman on
Sep 29, 2006 11:06 AM EDT
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I'll be there on Sunday...
by bkwelker on
Sep 29, 2006 11:09 AM EDT
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great post
by lboros on
Sep 29, 2006 11:17 AM EDT
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The hours nearly gone
Even now I hope there can be magic. I desperately root for it. Like game 5 last year, in the NLCS, when I was resigned to the off-season and what was to come, that feeling ... and then it all changed in one swing.
That's why I'm going. Besides .... the Braves owe the Astros one.
Go Cards.
by AtlantaBird on
Sep 29, 2006 11:35 AM EDT
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Excellent post ABird
by jdubya on
Sep 29, 2006 11:40 AM EDT
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Maybe it's just me
by Pokey Joe on Sep 29, 2006 10:31 AM EDT 0 recs
Scary Scenarios
Fri - Weaver
Sat - Suppan
Sun - Carpenter
I'm assuming we HAVE to win 2 of those or Monday won't even be an issue. Preferably, we need to win Fri and Sat and get that 1.5 game lead back heading into Sunday. Then you can save Carp for Gm 1.
If that doesn't happen, we go to
Mon - Reyes ---- the kid is solid, but our entire season resting on him? I won't feel good about that.
Tue - Marquis v Oswalt in Houston. If this happens, why even bother making the trip down there? Disgusts me to even think about it.
BUT, what if....what if Reyes and Marquis come through and we claw our way into that 1st round matchup with the Mets...then what?
Gm1 on Wed at Shea and who takes the mound to face the lefty loaded lineup? Jeff Weaver.
Ugh.
by TheFranchise9 on Sep 29, 2006 10:32 AM EDT 0 recs
yeah
I'm OK w/ Reyes vs. the Giants, they won't be thrilled about making the trip, in fact Alou already said as much. It'll be like a playoff game, the crowd should be pumped, etc.
So if we can find a way to avoid using Carp on Sunday, we should but I'd say that train left the station last night. We absolutely have to win 2 out of 3 b/c the Braves will win at least 1, won't they? And Smoltz goes on Sunday if the game matters.
by houstoncardinal on
Sep 29, 2006 10:50 AM EDT
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I mean
by houstoncardinal on
Sep 29, 2006 10:51 AM EDT
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Correct me if I'm wrong
by stlmapman on
Sep 29, 2006 11:21 AM EDT
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correct
by TheFranchise9 on
Sep 29, 2006 4:43 PM EDT
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That's it.
by Valatan on Sep 29, 2006 10:59 AM EDT 0 recs
This may be
by rockin redbird on Sep 29, 2006 11:07 AM EDT 0 recs
i am with you rockin
that sort of attitude does not bode well at all for our little fan base . . . .
by lboros on
Sep 29, 2006 11:21 AM EDT
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Yikes...
He has generally been a stand up guy in his years here. Granted it has been mostly good times, but after '99 and '03 I don't remember him scapegoating... he just buckled down and made the team better.
by guayzimi on
Sep 29, 2006 11:49 AM EDT
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Bull crap
by Zubin on
Sep 29, 2006 12:04 PM EDT
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Nope...
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on
Sep 29, 2006 12:19 PM EDT
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you're wrong zubin
going back to the series in milwaukee, when this whole mess started --- they lost a game started by chris capuano (no shame in that), beat ben sheets (kudos), and lost to a hot rookie -- a bad loss. in houston they lost games started by pettitte, oswalt, and clemens -- and scored runs off all of them, only to have the bullpen (or carp) lose the games late. in their one game vs a replacement-level pitcher, when houston started jason hirsh, the cards beat the hell out of hirsh only to have the bullpen blow the game.
vs the padres, they beat the hell out of the replacement pitcher (thompson), but carpenter blew the lead and they lost. they faced sd's two best pitchers, era-wise, the next two nights (williams and young) and split vs them.
last night was an ugly loss --- but not because they failed to hit. they lost because they got put in an insurmountable hole early. that's on marquis, and more to the point it's on the stubborn manager who keeps running him out there.

