Viva El Birdos: FanPosts

Arizona Fall League

stlfan — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 12:42:34 -0000

9 Cardinals will be involved with the Peoria Saguaros, writes Derrick Goold. The persons in question:

AA Coach Pop Warner - has led the AA Cardinals to 73-63 (2007) and 73-60 (2008) records.

High-A LHP Tyler Norrick - 24 years old - Only played in 6 games, starting them all, over two classes (High-A 5 starts and AAA 1 start) this season. Total of 22 1/3 IP, 20 H, 15 ER, 2 HR, 30 K, and 17 BB.

High-A C Steven Hill - 23 years old - 69 games between rookie ball, High-A ball, and AA ball. 266 ab, 77 hits, 43 runs, 17 homers, 46 rbi, 11 doubles, 3 triples, 14 bb, 73 K, 0 sb attempts.

AA LHP - Justin Fiske - 23 years old - 38 games played, 8 games started, 8 games finished, 1 save (between A ball, High-A ball, and AA ball). 73 IP, 72 hits, 30 ER, 5 HR, 90 K, 34 BB.

AA LHP - Brad Furnish - 23 years old - 28 games played, 23 games started (between High-A ball and AA ball). 131 IP, 119 hits, 67 ER, 14 HR, 86 K, 61 BB.

AA RHP - Adam Ottovino - 22 years old - 23 games started (all at AA). 108 1/3 IP, 129 hits, 66 ER, 15 HR, 92 K, 51 BB.

AA 3B - Brett Wallace - 21 years old - 47 games played (between A and AA), 176 ab, 60 hits, 37 runs, 8 hr, 33 rbi, 11 doubles, 1 triple, 17 BB, 34 K, 0 sb attempts.

AAA SS - Tyler Greene - 24 years old - 120 games (between AA and AAA). 462 ab, 120 hits, 76 runs, 16 hr, 46 rbi, 22 doubles, 4 triples, 28 BB, 128 K, 18 for 24 SB.

AAA OF - Shane Robinson - 23 years old - 98 games (between AA and AAA). 363 ab, 112 hits, 54 runs, 5 hr, 41 rbi, 21 doubles, 3 triples, 21 BB, 56 K, 15 for 22 SB.

Looks like Wallace will not be coming to St. Louis. I, for one, am fine with that. Josh Phelps can probably do the same in September and not cost a year of eligibility, or start the arbitration clock early, or anything.

Another notes, Gordon Beckham, the highly touted shortstop out of U. of Georgia, will be starting next to Brett Wallace. Could be a fun team to watch...if it were on television.

Todd Van Poppel v. Anthony Reyes

felone — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 03:32:19 -0000

When the Cardinals traded Anthony Reyes it got me thinking about another high profile RHP who didn't seem to do to well under LaDunc - Todd Van Poppel.

I'm curious (and can't find any anecdotal evidence one way or another) as to what was the problem with Todd Van Poppel and why he didn't live up to the hype. Was there any of the "pitch to contact" philosophical differences? Was his stuff not as good as advertised? How did he get along with Duncan?

Does anyone recall this? Is Duncan ever blamed for his poor results? I recall the hype and lack of success, but too young to remember and can't find (alas before the days of instant blogification) the reasons why.

As a separate question - Can anyone think of starting pitchers who have been developed in the organization and had great success as pitchers under Duncan (either in Oak or STL)? The only one that comes to mind for me is Matt Morris (Wagonmaker's on his way, even though he wasn't drafted by the Cardinals). Duncan's greatest successes that I can think of seem to be 'Duncan specials' (Suppan, Bottenfield, Welch, Stewart, Carpenter, Lohse, etc,) and didn't come up through the system.

1st fan post, please be kind :-)

Baseballs & Physics

Hinkster — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 15:04:09 -0000

I thought some of you might appreciate this recent article from "Natural History" magazine. (article #2 in the directory)..............."Battered Expectations - Do Baseballs Obey the Laws of Physics?"

Good food for thought and discussion. I'm not a physics guy naturally but the author presents some interesting points on two fronts - among others

1) What a batter must do to be able to hit a MLB pitch

2) Are some pitches not moving but just optical illusions?

Enjoy

(someone might need to help me with the hyperlink thing) [Fixed-Valatan]

Kelly Johnson

thenextgen — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 02:05:24 -0000

Hello fellow veb-er's, over the past two series versus atlanta i keep thinking over and over again, how do we get kelly johnson in a cardinal uniform? i became even more impressed with his at bat against springer on saturday, he seems to me to be the kind of guy tony would like so how about this...

Cards acquire- Kelly Johnson

Braves acquire- Mitchell Boggs, AK no 7, allen craig

This way we can slary dump on Kennedy, trade a commodity in Boggs for atlanta, and get a blocked prospect out of the system in craig

How does that sound?

just a brief summary of events thus far

Cards Fan in Chitown — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 07:19:35 -0000

We are 2nd in the NL in slugging to the cubs

the cardinals are 2nd in OBP also

we're 4th in runs per game

we are second in OPS

We are 12th in slugging against us however

Although we are tied for 2nd in left on base percentage

our BA/RSP is very close to Pittsburgh for highest in the league

team RZR is at .847

The team appears to be pretty competitive for the stretch. Sure we are not perfect, but hey, the Cubs just lost, so who know.

On Opportunity Costs

kindred — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 04:33:49 -0000

in the comments of yesterday's main thread, LB made an important statement here, which i'll excerpt:

a factor i completely overlooked in the main post is the high opportunity cost that attends any long-term deal that’s handed out to a pitcher. when you lock in a mediocrity (or worse) with a long-term guaranteed deal, it costs another, potentially better player a chance to come in and upgrade your organization.

he goes on to say that opportunity costs go both ways, which is definitely true. i replied in that thread trying to flesh out that point, but i think that it might get missed by a lot of people since i posted it late at night towards the bottom of the thread. but here's what i said with a few improvements:

herein lies the problem with citing opportunity costs: you never know in which direction those might point, because none of us have perfect information ahead of time. the entire point of using the concept of opportunity costs as a decision-making tool assumes that actors act rationally, and actors can only act rationally if they have complete (or near complete) information about the outcomes of the alternatives in front of them. those assumptions don’t hold here.

as examples: nearly everyone here (including me) decried the Looper signing at the time, and yet we got one above-average relief season out of him and are in the middle of getting two roughly average starting seasons, all well below the established market value for those levels of production. nearly everyone here hated the Wellemeyer signing last year (including me) because he was gonna take a spot away from a younger player who had more room to develop. then everybody hated his movement from the bullpen to the rotation for the same reason (even more: he was replacing Kid Reyes). Welly and Loop have been pretty huge successes for us, given the cost and the performance of the players they replaced. Encarnacion (even before his unfortunate injury) and Kennedy have not been. Piniero, in my view, is in the middle.

several years ago, the Cards decided not to sign Burnett because he wanted a fifth year added on to the contract. some here supported that decision and some opposed it. in retrospect, given the contracts to pitchers like Suppan, Batista, and Silva, the Cards should've either included the 5th year or bumped up their offered Average Annual Value of the contract by offering more money over 4 years. but it was impossible to know at the time: Burnett had a history of injuries and inconsistent performance. if we'd had Burnett for the past three years, we might've been better able to absorb the injuries to Carp, Mulder, and Wainwright over the past two years. then again, maybe Waino never would've made it into the rotation. maybe Reyes and/or Wainwright would've been traded for somebody else.

all of these are opportunity costs of a selected action. some of them might've worked out. some of them might not have. the point is, you never know beforehand, so simply citing “opportunity costs” without qualification — or even definition — doesn’t really mean anything.

so if we hadn’t signed Welly and Looper (or if we would've signed Suppan, Batista, Silva, or Burnett) we would’ve suffered the opportunity cost of losing (or gaining) the marginal benefit of their production over their replacements. in some cases, that would have been a net gain. in some cases, it would have been a net loss. both the positive and negative gains are examples of opportunity costs, but that fact alone doesn’t tell us anything about whether or not we should sign FAs in the future, or simply promote from within.

the point is, as LB mentioned but didn't really elaborate, opportunity costs run in both directions. we’re dealing with imperfect information here and can’t predict future performances with certainty, so simply citing “opportunity cost” as the sole or primary reason not to sign a FA (or as a reason *to* sign one) is nothing more than a rationale for a previously determined preference. there's a word for that: "bias". it would be just as (in)valid to say that playing an unproven prospect rather than signing an established vet entails an opportunity cost, albeit in the opposite direction, and that would be a bias as well.

the concept of opportunity costs is powerful in its simplicity, but we need to understand what it really means. many on this board -- including me at times -- are biased in favor of player development over signing players with established levels of mediocre performance. sometimes those decisions are correct; sometimes they aren’t. but the concept of opportunity costs is value-free; it doesn’t automatically swing in either direction. opportunity costs should be part of an argument when discussing roster management decisions, and should be used in the context of predicting player performance (and, hopefully, measuring that projected performance in context of the marginal monetary costs). otherwise, it doesn't really help us, and can in fact cloud our judgment.

anyways, yeah. we all have biases, but let’s be careful not to let them sway our judgments too much. especially when we’re tossing out "scientific" theorems in support of our ideas.

TLR signing

stlpike — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 02:00:50 -0000

I overheard somewhere that Tony was going to be doing an autograph signing and missed when and where. Just wondering if anyone else had heard anything on the radio about it.

Also, does anyone know how to find out where current and former Cardinals make appearances for signings? My son loves to meet ballplayer (like we all did at one time), but I havent a clue as to how to come about this info. All help will be great.

DIE CUBS DIE

Could this work?

raysrule07 — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 23:50:35 -0000

HI everyone, Rays fan here. The Rays I'm sure will be trying to acquire a big right-handed bat that can play RF this offseason. There has been some debate among Rays fans as to who they could/should go after.

Personally, I'm intrigued by Joe Mather, though I don't know that much about him other than his numbers and that the Cardinals have a deep outfield at the moment. Any information you could give about his defense or how he was regarded as a prospect would be greatly appreciated.

UPDATE: Instant replay coming to a stadium near you in August

StLHugo — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 13:38:04 -0000

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3545338

Baseball Umpires and Owners have reached a deal to allow instant replay for boundary calls (fair/foul, homer/not homer) I would assume all calls from now on will be fair/no homer to allow the play to unfold and then get overturned similar to the fumble rules in the NFL.

What is your take on this? I can see this is a good thing and a bad thing. As long as it is limited to close plays and not used consistently for balls and strikes I don't see it as a bad thing at all.

EDIT: More information about it http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=kurkjian_tim&id=3546044

This column has the actual implementation that is going to happen. There will be a War Room that has all the video feeds available from both teams for the game. That room will feed them to the Umpire reviewing the feed. Replays can only be called by an Umpire, and only for Home Run call disputes, NOT for a ball landing on the foul line. At least 1 Umpire will remain on the field at all times.

Poll

Is instant replay good for baseball?

The MI problem

hazel — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 14:41:02 -0000

Supposedly we will have a bunch of cap room in this coming offseason $25-40 Million. According to many, the biggest weakness on the team is the offensively challenged middle infield. Our current (much maligned) middle infield looks like Izturis SS, Kennedy 2b, Miles 2b/SS, Lopez SS/2b(?).

Coming into next year, with the almost-certain departure of Izturis (neither Miles nor Lopez are under contract for next year), it's Brendan Ryan slotted for full-time at short, unless it's Miles (shriek), with Kennedy at 2b.

On the farm there are the well respected SS prospects, Pete Kozma (Quad cities/Palm Beach) and Jose Martinez (Springfield) who are both far away from ready. Also, there are several 2b's who don't really project as better than what we've got.

These are the MI's who've got free agency coming up (from Cot's Baseball Contracts).

Jamey Carroll * CLE

Ray Durham MIL

Mark Ellis OAK

Marcus Giles COL

Mark Grudzielanek KC

Orlando Hudson ARZ

Jeff Kent LAD

Felipe Lopez WAS/STL

Pablo Ozuna LAD

Nick Punto MIN

Jose Valentin NYM

Jose Vidro * SEA

Orlando Cabrera CWS

Alex Cintron CWS

Alex Cora BOS

Craig Counsell * MIL

Adam Everett MIN

Rafael Furcal LAD

Cesar Izturis STL

Ramon Martinez LAD

Edgar Renteria * DET

Juan Uribe CWS

* denotes an option for 2009.

Not a particularly inspiring list. Honestly, I like Adam Everett because he will be dirt cheap which will allow us to pursue offense somewhere else or spend money on pitching (AJ I love you!).

Also, there has been a lot of talk about trading for a MI with some offense (usually centered around Dan Uggla (vomit)), and the three that appear most likely to be on the block this offseason are JJ Hardy, Jimmy Rollins, and Dan Uggla (ughhh).

All three of these players are quantum leaps ahead of our current MI in terms of offense. None of them are better at their positions on defense (though only Uggla figures to be a significant downgrade).

JJ Hardy, various reports have said that the Brewers would be willing to trade Hardy if they feel Alcides Escobar is ready next year. The main problem with this trade is, what can the Cardinals offer for Hardy? The primary weakness of the Brewers is their relief, and it's not a strong suit for us either. I think our most likely point would be Mike Cameron's departure from center field, and Hardy would probably cost us Colby and another player.

Jimmy Rollins. This is mostly conjectural, but superstars in Philly have often gotten on the bad side of the fanbase, never to be forgiven (Bobby Abreu, Scott Rolen) and only booed mercilessly until their trades. Rollins, with one gaffe after another, looks to be in the inescapable Philly doghouse. Philadelphia's starting pitching could use a boost, and without Rollins the left side of their infield will be pretty shabby. Not sure exactly what this trade would entail, however (let's hear some ideas!). Also, Rollins is an aging player who could be entering his decline phase (hitting 260-ish this year, yikes!).

Dan Uggla (seriously, Dan Uggla?). I loathe the idea of Dan Uggla on the Cardinals. He's the all-HR's no-brains player that demands gigantic contracts (Andruw Jones style) and remains utterly unpredictable on offense and defense. Also, he's at the defensively less difficult position. No consistency, no glove, I'd rather have Khalil Greene. At any rate, the Marlins are always willing to make a deal, although this one as well as the others would have to come after the season ends. Talk has been bandied about him costing Colby and a(maybe even two) very good pitching prospect(s), and the Marlins are reputed to be looking for a CF and are always after pitchers. However, I imagine Uggla could be had for a Skip Schumaker/Anderson package because of their needs at CF and catcher.

Speaking of Khalil Greene, I'm going to profile a trade for him because of his recent struggles (okay, recent apocalyptic loss of all discernable ability). Greene could possibly be had for cheap because god only knows what he will do next season! A high-pop low-everything else Dan Uggla type hitter who actually plays decent defense and can run bases. Could resurrect himself in STL where his power that was swallowed up in San Diego could break out. Isn't SD in need of a catcher?

To end it, I'd just like to say that the MI market is a bit crazy right now. I doubt we will even have a shot at FA's like Cabrera or Furcal, while the trades are probably going to be costly. I think our best bet is either a cheap FA SS or two, along with an exploration of the trade market that leaves us open for a shot at some of the good FA pitchers (please please Burnett for the love of god!).

Alright, that's all I've got for now. Let me know what you guys think or if you know of any other possible trades or FA targets.

I heart Adam

cardsfaninmass — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 13:06:20 -0000

I love Adam Wainwright (in a completely nonsextual baseball way, of course - not that there's anything wrong with it). My love for him started in early 2006 - as he slowly worked his way up to become one of our primary setup men. He seemed fearless. And that curve...oh that sweet curve. October 2006 just confirmed what I already knew - this guy had the heart and guts to do really special things. When he faltered in early 2007, I was heartbroken, despondent and confused. His absolutely incredible second half was vindicating.

This season has been disappointing because of a freak injury to his finger. But nothing has been more disappointing than the way in which Adam has been jerked around by TLR/Dunc et al. in his rehab. From being told he was going to be in the bullpen, to upping his pitch count (but still being vague on his role), to suggesting that if Carpenter were healthy we wouldn't NEED our other ace and he could go to long relief.

Well, yesterday Adam did something extraordinary (again). He publicly called everyone out on this bullshit. He refused to sit back and let his situation be messed with any longer. Now he could've been the good soldier (like so many boring ball players before him) and spew some bullshit about "I just want to help my team win....whatever role Tony thinks is good, is fine with me".

But this is what he said:

"I’m ready," Wainwright insisted. "If they told me that I’m starting tomorrow, I’d feel ready except for that I just threw a side. I’m ready to face hitters in the big leagues. I know I can get guys out now."...."It’s frustrating to know I’m ready to pitch and I don’t have a role,"..."I would only speculate that I’m starting. But I don’t know that. I think it all depends on how No. 29 [Carpenter] feels."

He made clear he wants to start, but also, that he can help the team win:

"I can still have that good end to the year. I know I can help this team win. I know this team has a great chance to win. I’m excited to be part of it. I just don’t know which role yet."

The way he phrases it starkly illustrates the insanity with which he is being handled. He's ready; he wants to help; but he doesn't even know his role. How is that possible???

As recently as yesterday Mo was suggesting (RIDICULOUSLY) that Adam might go into long relief. Essentially Brad Thompson's role. Adam didn't mince words with his thoughts about this.

"I don’t even want to talk about middle relief," Wainwright said, adding, "I don’t think they’d put me in the bullpen to be a middle reliever. I just don’t see the value of me there."

What about a 4th rehab outing?

...the pitcher said he would be "incredibly disappointed" to learn [about another rehab outing].

"I wouldn’t feel right about it," Wainwright added. "Everybody wants to play in the big leagues."

What is so great about this is the public nature of Wainwright's intransigence is that it might just force TLR/Dunc's hand into doing what everyone knows is logical and necessary.

La Russa seemed to make room for Wainwright’s return as a starter.

"They’re together but there’s enough separation that I think you’ve got to do what’s best for Adam and our club right now, and then get Carp’ ready as soon as we can and see where we are," La Russa said....

Wainwright’s candidness before media and in a subsequent meeting with La Russa seemed to jumble that equation....

"I would probably prefer it if he had said he would come back however we needed him," La Russa said. "I know he wants to be a starter. He’s worked to be a starter all year long. He’s having a terrific season as a starter. But I know he’ll do whatever we need."

Kudos, Adam. Every day my love for you grows stronger. Now not only have you proved yourself a stealth competitor on the mound, you also show yourself to be a shrewd politician; not below manipulating a situation to get what you (and so many others) want. Lets hope TLR/Dunc aren't so stubborn that they will ignore this public outcry. If Wainwright is put into the bullpen after this, they risk not only the team's performance, but also their relationship with one of the key starting pitchers for this franchise into 2009 and beyond.

Payroll Reduced in '09?

The Ghost of Todd Burns — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 10:24:55 -0000

Don't panic...this isn't really a bad thing at all. While considering the 2009 roster recently, it occurred to me that this is a very real possibility. The Cardinals have a significant amount of cash coming off the payroll after this year, and I don't really see much chance of them re-signing any of their free agents.

Let's take a quick look:

Jason Isringhausen - $8M
Mark Mulder - $7M
Juan Encarnacion - $6.5M
Braden Looper - $5.5M - It's possible he could be re-signed, but I wouldn't do it.
Kyle Lohse - $4.25M - There's a slim chance, but I don't think the Cards really need to spend $40M ++ on this guy
Russ Springer - $3.5M - Russ is getting up there in age, I think they'd be pushing it to get another solid year out of him. Especially at 4M +
Cesar Izturis - $2.85M - He's been great with the glove and mediocre with the bat (as expected). I don't think any of us will be demanding he gets re-signed, nor do I think he will be.
Jason LaRue - $.85M - While, I have enjoyed having him and the porn stache on the team, I wouldn't pay him a million dollars for probably about a half-season until Anderson is ready to be called up. I think he can be replaced with another less expensive disposable back up catcher.

Also, Jim Edmonds is currently being paid $2M by the Cards this season, so between these 8 players, that's $40.45M coming off. Now, factor in salary increases for several players and the imminent re-signing of Aaron Miles, and this comes to roughly $30M...at least $25M, anyway.

So let's see how the roster shapes up without these guys around.

First of all, I demand that Skip Schumaker be converted to 2B. He's a former infielder, a good hitter, and he's getting pushed out of the everyday OF with Rasmus on the horizon. I think he'd be able to make the transistion and this would form a really solid platoon with Miles (Skip is batting .349 vs. Righties and Aaron is .316 vs. Lefties - though lefty seems to be his "power" side). I also think that David Freese should be given an opportunity to win the "Speizio" role coming out of spring training if given a little time at first and in the OF. As far as the OF is concerned, Mather, Ankiel, Ludwick and Rasmus get the bulk of the playing time while Jon Jay and Brian Barton battle it out for 5th OF in spring training.

So far the position players look like this:

1B - Albert Pujols
2B - Skip/Miles
SS -
3B - Troy Glaus
C - Molina
OF - Ankiel, Rasmus, Ludwick

Bench

Miles - 2B/SS
Skip - 2B/OF
Mather - OF
Freese - 3B/1B/OF
Jay/Barton - OF
Scrub backup/Anderson - C

SO...basically all we need this offseason is a starting SS and a scrub back-up catcher.

Now the pitchers:

Carpenter, Wainwright, and Wellemeyer (per Mozeliak in recent radio interview) are locks for next years rotation. You'd have to figure that Piniero will be penciled in based on his salary. That leaves one open spot. My idea would be to have a good ol' fashion competition for the 5th starter's spot between Kyle McClellan, Jaime Garcia, and Jess Todd. If Todd wins, K-Mac and Jaime are bullpen bound, if Todd doesn't win he goes to Memphis and the other guy goes to the pen. My money would be on Jaime to win out. If Pineiro sucks, Todd or K-Mac could be moved back in.

Which leaves us with a starting staff of:

Starters:

Carpenter
Wainwright
Wellemeyer
Piniero
Garcia

The bullpen is kind of a mess right now. We won't have a lefty reliever going into the offseason, unless you count Flores or Villone, which I do not. Thompson makes a better starter than a reliever, but I don't really know if has a spot on the team other than "spot starter" or "long relief for Pineiro". Jason Motte looks like he'd be able to make the jump. I would hope we see him in September. I refuse to include Tyler Johnson or Josh Kinney in this discussion; if they come back effectively, it will be a bonus. I would quit using Franklin in the late innings and go with a Motte-McClellan-Perez set up. Franklin can be switched to the Thompson role, since he has so much starting experience anyhow.

Here's what I've got so far:

Relievers:

Franklin
McClellan
Perez
Motte

So basically we need 2 lefties and a righty for the pen.

Which leaves at least $25 million to get a starting SS, a scrub catcher and 3 middle relievers. I'm sure a lot of fans will be up in arms if payroll decreases by $1, but I don't view this as a bad thing. It means our player development system is working, something that we aren't all too used to just yet.

By the way...in that same radio interview Mo stated that he wanted to pursue a veteran starter. I think we know how this story ends...5th starter competition in ST, which is why I included that part of it....but I also don't think its a bad idea and it would be really exciting to watch.

Brett Wallace on the Move

mtzxc — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 01:15:51 -0000

Brett Wallace is now a member of the Springfield Cardinals, and more importantly, is still at 3B while rising through the system. Even with his massive legs, Wallace has shown the ability to field the hot corner so far while proving that he is a polished player who can contribute in the very near future.

Is it safe to say that the Cardinals are expecting Wallace to take over 3B in 2010 in case Glaus is not resigned? Maybe have a new leftside of the infield with Wallace and Kozma by 2010? Only time will tell, but it sure is exciting to have all of this talent in the minors just waiting to burst into the majors. Just think, in the next few years we get to see what Wallace, Kozma, Rasmus, and others can do...

via farm4.static.flickr.com

The Good, The Bad, and the Uggla

VolsnCards5 — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 17:55:59 -0000

Word out of Florida, according to mlbtraderumors.com and SI, is that the Marlins are considering yet another firesale. Since a lot of their players are arby eligible this offseason, they will either have to trade them away, or double their payroll(which we all know they won't do). One of the names mentioned as being a trade candidate is Dan Uggla, hero of the All-Star Game.

I'm not the type of person that knows sabermetric stats such as VORP and win shares so I really can't speak to all of that in-depth stuff. What I do know is that Uggla, even if he doesn't have the same season at the plate next year as he did this year, would be quite the offensive upgrade over our current crop of 2-baggers. My question to all of you faithful VEB readers(especially those of you who are good with said statistics)is: Should the Cardinals consider trading some prospects in the offseason for Mr. Uggla? He will be cheaper than Orlando Hudson methinks, so the Cards would save some money(I am assuming Mo will do everything in his power to improve our MI situation, maybe I am wrong). Are his deficiencies at the keystone such that his bat will never make up for his iron glove? What do you guys think he will get in arbitration? And lastly, but most importantly, who from the farm system would you be willing to give up to get him?

I feel like if we really wanted him, we should go no higher than Jay and Mortensen...or some combination like that. That may even be too much. The Marlins know how to drive up the price, but I gotta think the Cards would have the upperhand because the Marlins seem to really be looking to ship him out.

Thoughts?

Grading the 2008 Cardinals

Ghosty — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 01:34:37 -0000

Just for fun, I decided to give each player we've had all year a grade. I tried to include every player that has donned the birds on the bat this year, even only temporarily (I threw Clement in just for fun). Feel free to critique this or ask questions. Didn't feel like including explanations. I feel the grades are self-explanatory.

Rick Ankiel - B

Brian Barton - B-

Mitchell Boggs - C-

Chris Carpenter - B+

Matt Clement - Expelled

Chris Duncan - D

Randy Flores - D-

Ryan Franklin - D

Jaime Garcia - B

Troy Glaus - B+

Jason Isringhausen - F

Cesar Izturis - C+

Kelvin Jimenez - C-

Adam Kennedy - C

Jason LaRue - C-

Kyle Lohse - A-

Braden Looper - B+

Felipe Lopez - C+

Ryan Ludwick - A+

Joe Mather - B

Kyle McClellan - A

Aaron Miles - B

Yadier Molina - A-

Mark Mulder - F-

Mike Parisi - D+

Chris Perez - B+

Joel Pinero - C

Albert Pujols - A+

Anthony Reyes - Truant

Brendan Ryan - C-

Skip Schumacher - A-

Russ Springer - B

Nick Stavinoha - D

Brad Thompson - B+

Ron Villone - C

Adam Wainwright - B+

Rico Washington - D-

Todd Wellemeyer - B+

Mark Worrell - C

Dave Duncan - B+

Tony La Russa - A-

Can Mather play 3B?

rlgosnell — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 21:25:07 -0000

I'm going to research some of Mather's MiLB history and see where he played and how he performed, but at the moment I'm feeling lazy and hoping that someone with more and direct familiarity with the farm system (i live in TX so i dont get to see the young kids live) could speak on Mather's ability to play 3B. Dan and Al rave about his athletic ability and he seems to be competent enough in LF and considering he has played a little in CF maybe they're right. If he could play 3B and we could move Glaus for an offensive (statistically) MIF as opposed to the offensive (morally) MIF we already have then that could be a significant upgrade. I'm thinking Rollins and Orlando Hudson up the middle with Mather and Albert at the corners might suffice.

Cardinal Dreams

bjork24 — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 21:05:59 -0000

Although this may be a bit "out of left field", I figured we were all Cardinal-crazy enough to have had at least one or two dreams about the Cardinals, or maybe a player in particular. If this is too far off topic, feel free to delete it, but I was hoping it might be light enough (and hopefully funny enough) to keep around. The reason I bring it up is because I had this weird dream where...

... I was playing center field (Ank must've still been injured), and I kept having the ball hit to me. I could catch it fine, but when I'd try to throw it back to Welly (who was pitching in this particular dream) I could barely muster enough force to get it to edge of the infield dirt. Then, out of the blue, Jimmy Edmonds appeared in the on deck circle, and as he knelt down to tie his shoe or something, I launched a ball his way that ended up plunking him right in the ribs... without taking a bounce. I immediately felt bad about hitting him, but he stood up, brushed off the hit, and jogged out to talk to me in center. I was certain we were going to fight, but he was very jovial and laughed it off.

I guess this is my subconcious trying to deal with JED's move to the Cubbies. It's still a love/hate relationship, I guess. Anyway, that's my most recent dream involving the Cardinals. I've had plenty of others, but I thought I'd open the floor to anyone else who had a good one to share.

Perez or Waino as Closer

apaul1029 — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 17:14:10 -0000

I was reading the SLToday article on Perez and that TLR did not want to give him the "closer" role yet. I can understand why TLR would not want to add pressure to Perez, but he also does not show him any faith either.

Then I read in the article that "The Cardinals are still considering rehabbing Adam Wainwright for the closing job. He has done it before." Then I though of the time that Waino was the closer. Was it not at the end of his rookie year and we did not have a closer? Didn't we also have big trouble in the bullpen? We had another two young relievers that were thrown into the mix in TJ and Kinney.

After seeing Perez in his last few outings, I would be appauled if they use Waino as the closer. The reasons are these.

1. Perez has closed before beit in the minors and college, but he understands the pressures and has the mentality.

2. Perez has better stuff for the Closer spot. A 97mph fastball that moves up and in on right handers is a killer pitch. I like a closer that is not afraid to throw the fastball up in the zone. (I don't think he always knows where it is going when he releases it, but) Plus his slider is better since returning. Unlike Izzy, I feel much better with Perez going to the mount. He is going to throw hard and without abandon to get the outs. He does not nibble after getting a 0-1 or 0-2 count.

3. Waino in the rotation is a big boost for the team. As some of you have said, as a starter Waino gets more innings. If he goes 7 innings instead of 5, like the rest, he has saved two relievers that game. And giving up 2 runs instead of 5, he might make it so you don't have a save situtation that game and it saves pressure on the Closer.

4. If this team is going to make the playoffs it will have to take chances. What would you rather have Carp, Waino, Lohse, Welly and Looper and Perez as Closer or Carp, Lohse, Welly Looper and Piniero and Waino as closer? Sure Perez is a wildcard but so was Waino in 2006. And I don't think Waino is a lock for a great closer now. He has been a starter all his career. Perez is a groomed as a closer.

5. If this team throws "craps" and does not make the playoffs, Perez has experience as closer for next year, Carp, Waino, Welly, McClellen are set as a rotation, offense will only get better with an extra $40million to spend on an infield or even the third ace. I want McClellen as a starter. I think he is wasted as a reliever. Lohse, I am not sure on. $10 mil? Why not Sabathia for $18mil.

I say take the chances and announce Perez as the closer and lets go all out for the wildcard. If we fail we have $40mil to fill the needs for a run next year. I feel really good either way.

6 man rotation

easy — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 23:16:53 -0000

If I were TLR I would seriously consider a six man rotation for the rest of the season. This strikes me as a good move for a number of reasons. First off Carpenter is coming off surgery and a long lay off and it would be dangerous to overwork him. Beyond that, in '06 his e.r.a. was well below 2.00 on five days rest. Wainwright is also coming off an injury and a long lay off and could probably use a longer recuperation between starts. (I'm assuming that the latest word that he's targeted for the rotation are true. It should be if it's not.) Of the other guys, only Piniero has flirted with pitching himself out of the rotation but his last outing was more than decent. We know what Carp can do with 5 days of rest and it might be interesting to see what the other guys do with it too. Also, I suspect that every pitcher in the game could use more rest after 120 games or so (see Kyle Lohse).

For the rest of August the six man rotation could cause some roster disruption and probably someone in the bull pen would have to be sent down or DL'd. If the starters went more innings, though, the beleagered bull pen would be fresher even with one less member. After August the rosters expand and that issue is negated.

One more reason to do it. We're in a little bit of trouble in the wild card race. We need to make up significant ground on the Brewers and hold off several more teams. Since May we've been a .500 team and we made no significant additions (okay I actually like Felipe but it seems noone else does) so there is no reason to think that we'll suddenly start streaking into the playoffs. Doing something different, seeing how our starters respond to more rest, particularly when Carp and Wainwright should be handled with care might be our answer to Sabathia, Harden etc. We don't have a lot to lose.

The Future (not of the Redbirds, per se)

stlfan — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 22:20:09 -0000

I was reading a piece over at Joe Posnanski's blog the other day (read: week) and he was talking about "Sports Illustrated" doing a survey of 20 baseball General Manager's around the league. The manager was to "in order of preference, name the five players in Major League Baseball they would most like to build their team around." I wanted to try this with VEB posters, but do it a little differently.

My idea is to find out from all of you which position player at each position around the field is most desirable when starting a franchise. You are not naming an All-Star team of young players, so you do not have to make sure to have a great leadoff hitter, a great 4 hitter, a stud defensive outfielder or catcher, or anything like that. Here's my shot at it.

If I were choosing a catcher to start a franchise, my choice is probably Russell Martin or Yadier Molina. As much as I love Brian McCann, Joe Mauer, et al. After seeing the All-Star game, I would have to say that I think Russell Martin has the most potential to be a good defensive catcher than all the rest (minus Yadi). Yadi is already the best defensive catcher in the game, in my opinion. Martin's got the upside on the offensive side of the ball. I like the fact that neither of them strike out much more than they walk, if at all. Yadier will give you very close to a .300 average a year and has 10-15 HR potential pop in his bat. Martin has 20 HR and 20 SB potential, possibly more. Being a pitcher's son, I believe that there are just a few positions on the diamond that good defense is needed. Yadier redefines the words "good defense." I'll take Yadier Molina.

At first base, I choose none other than Albert Pujols. I think around here, the choice is obvious. In his article, Posnanski's whole point of bringing up the survey from SI was to say how underrated Pujols is around the country and how there's no doubt he's the best player right now. I have barely anything to add to that, so I'll let it stand as is.

At second base, I really think it only comes down to Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler, Jose Lopez, Dustin Pedroia, Brandon Phillips, Dan Uggla, and Chase Utley (in alphabetical order.) Let's start with the good. Lopez and Pedroia are 24 years old, Cano is 25. The others are older than that, but still very much so in the beginning of their prime (or so I would believe.) Dustin Pedroia and Brandon Phillips are probably the best defenders among them, just by looking at what baseball-reference has to offer me.

Offensively, this is what I forsee for each. Cano should be able to give you many seasons of .290+, 40+ double, 25+ HR baseball. Kinsler I see giving .290+, 45+, 25+, while also giving 30+ steals. Lopez I see giving .280+, 30+, 15+. Pedroia I see giving .315+, 40+, 15+, 15+. Phillips I see giving .270+, 25+, 25+, 30+. Uggla I see giving .250+, 40+, 30+. Utley I see giving .295+, 40+, 30+, 10+ steals.

I think that with defense included, Brandon Phillips looks most like the entire package to me. I would take Phillips.

At third base, there are a myriad players who are easy to list; however, that makes it much harder to choose. Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, David Wright, Miguel Cabrera (I believe, in ascending order of age, to name a few) are all youngsters with amazing potential for many home runs, many steals, many doubles, a high average, etc. I don't think any of them come close. Alex Rodriguez is the class of 3rd basemen and I think he can play for another 5-7 years at this level. Many people believe that he is the best in all of baseball right now and has been for years. It is a tough thing to argue against. I still take Pujols over him...but that's me and I'm a bit of a homer. In any case, this was not a tough call for me.

At shortstop, I believe there to be a long list of candidates...that can be whittled down to three immediately. Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitski, and Jose Reyes. I'll take them out in reverse order from here on out. After watching Jose Reyes in the 2006 playoffs, I was scared to see him bat. Not only did it mean that the other big boppers (Beltran, Delgado, Wright) were coming up, it meant that I had to have a boatload of angst watching him sprint and twist and turn and whatever else he was doing while on the bases. He is SO incredibly fast that it is hard to imagine ever getting him out unless the ball is caught in the air. After watching the end of last year with the run the Rockies had, it was clear to me that this rookie shortstop was one BIG reason why they were winning all these games. He is stellar in the field and gets on base a ton. However, after watching the first 3 games of the series against the Fish, I believe that Hanley Ramirez is the real deal. To me, he looks like a player who expects greatness, a la Pujols or Rodriguez. He is a player who expects to get on every time. When he gets out he kinda looks around at the bat, at the ball, whatever, and thinks to himself "I'll remember that for next time." Not only that, but he probably has the most raw power of the three...and maybe the most raw speed. I'll take that guy every time. Hanley Ramirez.

I think that there's no need to take three outfielders. I think it is definitely necessary to take two when doing this exercise. I believe that great centerfielders are hard to come by AND that they are very different from corner outfielders...so I will take a centerfielder and a corner outfielder.

In centerfield, Josh Hamilton (at least this year) and Grady Sizemore are the class of the league to me. Josh Hamilton has graced baseball with a season to remember, thus far. Grady Sizemore has been putting up similar numbers for 4.5 seasons now. Hamilton is given the green light consistently, except for on the base paths. That hurts his numbers in terms of steals. I don't think he's as fast as Sizemore, but does not need to be. Sizemore, on the contrary, has tremendous speed and uses it to his advantage a lot. He also leads off for the Indians, so he has every opportunity to do so. Because he bats leadoff, he is asked to take more pitches and "just get on base" more often than Hamilton is (I assume.) This leads me to believe that his power numbers are lower than they could be. Both play defense VERY, VERY well, so that's a wash. This, to me, is about a draw, but having 3 more years of experience AND being younger...I'll take Grady Sizemore.

As for corner outfield spots, I think the best one to start a franchise with has to come from this grouping of players: Nick Markakis, Carl Crawford, and Matt Holliday. All 3 players play reasonably good defense, given the status of their bat. None is a complete liability out there. Ryan Braun is another to consider, but he could very well be a 1B very soon...so maybe not. Anyway. Markakis is a guy who could give you .300/.400/.500 year in and year out. I would expect 25 or more homers and 60 or more XBH out of him every year. He doesn't steal very often, but is getting much better year after year at his K:BB. Crawford gives you flat out speed. He could give you .300/.350/.465 year in and year out. He could also give you 50-75 steals, but is NOT improving on his K:BB. I'd expect only 10 or so homers, but 50+ XBH because of his speed. Matt Holliday is on the opposite end of the Markakis spectrum from Crawford. Holliday is a guy who will give you something like this year in and year out: .330/.400/.600 Yeah...wow. I would expect between 25-35 hr, 40-50 doubles, and 15 steals out of him. Since he has a little speed, but MUCH more power than the others, I would have to go with Matt Holliday.

There's the players I would start a franchise with at each position.