Viva El Birdos - All PostsA St. Louis Cardinals Fan Communityhttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/50051/veb-fav.png2024-03-29T01:20:27-04:00http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/rss/current/2024-03-29T01:20:27-04:002024-03-29T01:20:27-04:00The St. Louis Cardinals open the season not with a bang, but a whimper
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<img alt="MLB: Spring Training-St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/MWi4PiUrWbgPK7GrkBhMSm4vJcE=/0x1346:3566x3723/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73240669/usa_today_22873568.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>but it is not the end of the world.</p> <p id="59bfpr">There is a specific type of melancholy to <a href="https://allpoetry.com/The-Hollow-Men">‘The Hollow Men</a>’ by T.S. Eliot. It is hard not be with lines like “more distant and more solemn Than a fading star”. It is a poem about the end of the world, written at a time where the world was in great turmoil and all was bleak. It is about fading away quietly versus going out in a dramatic blaze. </p>
<p id="tR7HTE">It is a dramatic choice for a comparison for the first loss of the season for the St. Louis Cardinals, that is for sure, but I have to add some flair to an otherwise bland game, right?</p>
<p id="5rS0Ue">And it was a bit of a dreary start to the season for the Cards with them dropping the opening game to the Los Angeles Dodgers 7 to 1. Miles Mikolas made the start for the Cardinals, going just over 4 innings giving up 5 runs on 2 walks and 7 hits with 5 strikeouts. The home run was an issue for him in 2023 and it was an issue for him this game. The Dodgers potent offense hit two out of the park against him along with two doubles. </p>
<p id="1Vreve">The offense didn’t fair much better. 8 of the Cardinals starting 9 hitters went hitless on the day and the Cardinals amassed just 3 hits and 1 walk. The team did only strike out once, though and had a few line drives go for outs. Victor Scott reached base on a throwing error and stole second base for the first time in his young career. </p>
<p id="HcYcPx">Let’s focus on more positives from this game. While the Cardinals only had three hits as a team on the day, all of them were off the bat of Paul Goldschmidt. While that isn’t great news to hear about the rest of the team, it does seem to say something about good about Goldy, who went 3-4 with a homerun off Tyler Glasnow in the top of the fourth inning. </p>
<div id="qZe3jJ"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><iframe src="https://streamable.com/m/paul-goldschmidt-homers-1-on-a-fly-ball-to-left-field-ob4qta" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen="" scrolling="no" allow="encrypted-media;"></iframe></div></div>
<p id="bp2jWw">It was also a positive outing for the Matthew Liberatore. He entered the game in the eighth inning and kept the Dodgers off the board with no hits and one strikeout. His fastball topped out at 97 miles per hour and placed around the outer half of the zone and he induced a swinging strike with his slider.</p>
<p id="NI3pOs">Before we recorded the podcast tonight (stay tuned for that on Friday morning), the lovely J.P. Hill said something like “The good news is, baseball was played.” The outcome wasn’t much to write home about — this extremely short recap has taken me a long time to write, mostly because I struggled to find the best words to describe what was really a rather uneventful game for our favorite baseball team — but baseball is back. There is slight warmth in the air. The birds are chirping. Flowers are starting to bloom. There are 161 games left. 161 more chances. What a feeling. </p>
<p id="4sh5kU">The Cardinals and Dodgers resume their series on Friday and 9:10 pm CST. </p>
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2024/3/29/24115147/the-st-louis-cardinals-open-the-season-not-with-a-bang-but-a-whimperlil_scooter932024-03-28T13:00:00-04:002024-03-28T13:00:00-04:00Opening Day Game Thread: 3/27 Cards @ Dodgers
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<img alt="St. Louis Cardinals v Milwaukee Brewers" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/tENJGm4JzUDuIx59ajknhLuBpe4=/0x0:3000x2000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73239239/1704469482.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Cardinals face the Dodgers at 3:10</p> <p id="3r4jxM">Cardinals baseball is here. Let’s talk about it.</p>
<p id="gPprtX">Cardinals Lineup:</p>
<p id="YfcpKU">1. Donovan 7</p>
<p id="XODuBD">2. Goldschmidt 3</p>
<p id="wbIq3y">3. Gorman 4</p>
<p id="AyHteU">4. Arenado 5</p>
<p id="fS4ncU">5. Contreras 2</p>
<p id="E5nnFA">6. Burleson DH</p>
<p id="ZIfk3r">7. Walker 9</p>
<p id="BSZT3Q">8. Scott II 8</p>
<p id="QliKhl">9. Winn 6</p>
<p id="ewUh4A">Mikolas 1</p>
<p id="C4H1e7">Play BombsAway all season with @cardinalsgifs and @c70 on Twitter X!</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">✅ lineup submitted <br>✅ first game of series <br>✅<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/bombsaway?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#bombsaway</a> with <a href="https://twitter.com/C70?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@C70</a><br>--- <br>1. Donovan, LF<br>2. Goldschmidt, 1B<br>3. Gorman, 2B<br>4. Arenado, 3B<br>5. Contreras, C<br>6. Burleson, DH<br>7. Walker, RF<br>8. Scott II, CF<br>9. Winn, SS<br> --- <br>⚾️ Mikolas, RHP vs. Glasnow, RHP<br><br> <a href="https://t.co/bs6wcIZzad">pic.twitter.com/bs6wcIZzad</a></p>— cardinalsgifs (@cardinalsgifs) <a href="https://twitter.com/cardinalsgifs/status/1773394620107620429?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 28, 2024</a>
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<p id="nYvv2j">Dodgers’ Lineup:</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Today's <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/OpeningDayLA?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#OpeningDayLA</a> lineup vs. Cardinals: <a href="https://t.co/XiNZY3vXeJ">pic.twitter.com/XiNZY3vXeJ</a></p>— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) <a href="https://twitter.com/Dodgers/status/1773398914512883857?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 28, 2024</a>
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https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2024/3/28/24114520/opening-day-game-thread-3-27-cards-dodgersJ. P. Hill2024-03-28T09:00:00-04:002024-03-28T09:00:00-04:00Hope is the word against the Los Angeles Dodgers - A Series Preview
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<img alt="MLB: Spring Training-Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/a-vc1NGV_A9WxjPKScfwowd53jo=/2x0:3641x2426/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73238488/usa_today_22875231.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The Dodgers are kind of good</p> <p id="b5BA34">We have arrived. It’s Opening Day. This has been, by a large margin, the least excited St. Louis has been for Opening Day in a long time. Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe I’m in the wrong corners of the internet. I’ve never seen a Cardinals team be relatively well-positioned to win the division and have fans carry such little hope for the season. I get it and I don’t get it at the same time.</p>
<p id="tpK4Zq">But put your pessimism at the door today. Today, the Cardinals have the chance to be undefeated. They have the chance to surprise. Anything can happen, and for today and possibly today only, anything can happen means anything good can happen. We’re supposed to be excited for baseball. We’re supposed to enjoy watching baseball.</p>
<p id="FXTlbc">Many of us will see Victor Scott 11 run down a ball for the first time. We may see Masyn Winn turn an infield single into a surprising out with a three-digit throw. We may see Nolan Arenado make the 10,000th web gem of his career. Nolan Gorman to smash his first of many homers to come. For Jordan Walker to scare the living daylights out of an opposing pitcher when the ball brushes past his head. </p>
<p id="QshFSv">Baseball is all about when you face a team more than it is about who you face. Last year, the Cardinals got swept by the Dodgers at the end of April. Two and a half weeks later, the Cardinals won three of four games against the Dodgers. The Cardinals’ bats were alive in that second series. They didn’t even pitch well. They allowed at least 5 runs in every game. The Cardinals’ offense has that kind of potential. (They had good starting pitchers in May too: that series included Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin, and Clayton Kershaw.)</p>
<p id="GXDcXI">The moment may get just a little bit too big for Tyler Glasnow today and the Cardinals may take advantage. We should know that players struggle with new teams and large expectations sometimes (both Arenado and Goldschmidt). Yoshinobu Yamamoto may need an adjustment period before he figures the MLB ball and MLB hitters. Maybe the Dodgers’ bats run cold. Every team has hot and cold stretches. Maybe this is the right time of the year to face the Dodgers.</p>
<p id="5DJ7Ml">The Dodgers’ bats are excellent. Mookie Betts leads off, and he had a pretty good argument to win MVP, he just ran into a guy with fun counting stats. Newly acquired Shohei Ohtani, while he’s still here anyway, follows him. And they still have Freddie Freeman. And that’s just the first inning. It’s a relief to face Will Smith and Max Muncy, pretty good hitters themselves.</p>
<p id="qIs8XE">But they have decided to put Mookie Betts at SS, which seems like a pretty bad idea to me. He was shaky in the first two games, and with the limited sample we have, he was -2 outs above average at SS in 98 innings last season, which is horrible. Max Muncy, below average fielder himself, committed two costly errors in the second game. Teoscar Hernandez is a below average LF. Basically hit to the left side, I wouldn’t expect anyone to be a good defender there.</p>
<p id="fFBU2j">On the flip side, sort of, are the all-defense players, which is a weird label to place on two people who were good hitters last year. But James Outman’s offensive numbers look very fluky to me - he had a .344 wOBA and .325 xwOBA with a .343 BABIP and 31.9 K%. And Jason Heyward’s definitely were. ZiPS still sees him as a (slightly) below average hitter. You can throw Gavin Lux at 2B in this group as well. The weakest hitter is still supposed to surpass a 90 wRC+, so you know.</p>
<p id="gyQVDX">Their bullpen is, well not as dominant as you’d expect? I’m sure it’ll be good. Evan Phillips is their closer and you don’t want to face him (2.05 ERA/3.37 xFIP in 2023). Old friend Joe Kelly runs very hot and cold, like any reliever, though he struck out 35.7% of hitters last year. They seemingly discovered a new gear for 36-year-old Ryan Braiser. We are lucky enough to witness one of the 20 innings Daniel Hudson will pitch, if he’s not toast at this point (he’s thrown 27 innings combined last two seasons). Alex Vesia is fine. Then a trio of converted starters: Ryan Yarbrough, Michael Grove, Kyle Hurt. Hurt could be elite, Yarbrough is clearly just there to eat innings, and Grove is somewhere in between.</p>
<p id="XQZVHb"><strong>Thursday - 3:10 PM</strong></p>
<p id="3fIGxw"><em>Miles Mikolas (4.78 ERA/4.27 FIP/4.76 xFIP) vs. Tyler Glasnow (3.53 ERA/2.91 FIP/2.75 xFIP)</em></p>
<p id="OKr8zK">I did not know Mikolas had a great spring training and the only reason I know that is because Fangraphs lists spring training stats on their page now. I was under the impression everyone had an awful spring training. Admittedly faith in Mikolas requires you believe, as he has actually stated, that he treated the 2nd half last year as a sort of spring training to work on his stuff. So his stats may look worse than they should.</p>
<p id="iw4nzR">Glasnow, well, the big knock on Glasnow is his health. And that’s not very useful when he’s healthy. Like I said before, hopefully Glasnow, in trying to make a big impression for his new team, struggles against the Cardinals and hopefully the Cardinals can take advantage of that.</p>
<p id="HoR113"><strong>Friday - 9:10 PM</strong></p>
<p id="ArKwJG"><em>Zack Thompson (4.48 ERA/3.87 FIP/3.83 xFIP) vs. Bobby Miller (3.76 ERA/3.51 FIP/3.75 xFIP)</em></p>
<p id="w7d4us">I’m not trying to start a fight, but it is amusing to me that some people didn’t like the fact that Thompson wasn’t made the fifth starter so the Cardinals could get two better pitchers instead of three pitchers, and that Thompson would be blocked. And he’s starting the 2nd game of the season. Let’s hope Thompson forces his way into a permanent spot in the rotation. He’s really getting thrown into the fire here, so he’d really earn it.</p>
<p id="qHuuzS">Miller will probably fly under the radar in the Dodgers’ rotation, both because he doesn’t have the track record and well, he’s just not as good as Glasnow and Yamamoto are expected to be. But it would not be totally shocking if he outpitched Yamamoto in 2024 in my opinion.</p>
<p id="e4O7hd"><strong>Saturday - 8:10 PM</strong></p>
<p id="G2j5Iw"><em>Lance Lynn (5.73 ERA/5.53 FIP/4.50 xFIP) vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (45.00 ERA/7.78 FIP/8.43 xFIP)</em></p>
<p id="qwjhCs">Yeah I usually don’t share year of stats until I get a sample of games that I’m happy with, but A) it’s funny sharing those stats against the Padres and B) I don’t actually have any other MLB data to use. There may genuinely be an adjustment period for him. Kodai Senga ended up with a good season, but in his first month, he walked everyone. He had a 5.10 FIP and 15.6 BB%.</p>
<p id="K8q0TM">Lynn well, I have to admit I don’t love the idea of a homer-happy guy who we are counting on to get neutral home run luck facing a team where you don’t need to be particularly unlucky to allow a bunch of home runs. So that theory will get immediately tested, although obviously one game against the best offense in baseball is going to make most pitchers’ numbers look bad. That said, if he has a good game against them, I am going to be super optimistic about Lynn’s 2024, which is definitely not how you’re supposed to treat one-game samples.</p>
<p id="tdkWJE"><strong>Sunday - 6:00 PM</strong></p>
<p id="ozITCl"><em>Steven Matz (3.86 ERA/3.75 FIP/3.96 xFIP) vs. Gavin Stone (9.00 ERA/6.64 FIP/5.15 xFIP)</em></p>
<p id="Dok8tZ">Not to put too much pressure on you Matz, but this is by far the most winnable game. Stone’s projections aren’t actually that bad and he had a good spring, but even accounting for that, he’s definitely the worst pitcher in this series. And it’s not that close. Those stats were last year’s stats in 31 innings and some of it was in the bullpen, so he pitched genuinely bad last year. And if there’s one thing I don’t trust projections on - aside from defense, it’s for pitchers who haven’t actually done it at the MLB level yet.</p>
<p id="0KHvZG">Matz, well, when he’s on, he’s probably in the running for the Cards’ best pitcher, and when he’s not, he’s probably in the running for the Cardinals’ worst pitcher. Let’s hope it takes him quicker than last year to be on.</p>
<p id="lI8wIs">And there you have it. I used to do predictions, when last season started going poorly, I stopped and there is no chance I’m bringing it back for this Dodgers series, that’s just asking for trouble.</p>
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2024/3/28/24114295/hope-is-the-word-against-the-los-angeles-dodgers-a-series-previewstlcardsfan42024-03-27T09:00:00-04:002024-03-27T09:00:00-04:002024 VEB Community Predictions
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<img alt="Boston Red Sox v St. Louis Cardinals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Y95yOVOl8d5i0ldjtvRHyppInIs=/0x0:4746x3164/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73235972/2044361416.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Vote or die.</p> <p id="l8q1Sm">Opening Day is tomorrow! Finally.</p>
<p id="Cne0sR">A 2023 season of nightmares…</p>
<p id="MwCSiE">…followed by another offseason of debates and disappointments…</p>
<p id="GRu1lg">…and a less than inspiring Spring Training performance…</p>
<p id="j01JWc">has everyone in Cardinals country ready for games that matter.</p>
<p id="pLb6LH">The 2024 season is about to start. Hopefully, it’s one to remember. The Cardinals open competition against the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> at 3:10 pm Thursday. I – now finished with my dissertation and officially Dr. J. P. Hill – plan to grab some wings and peanuts, a big glass of cherry coke, and will watch the game in complete relaxation. Win. Lose. I don’t really care. I’m just ready to watch baseball instead of typing until my fingers bleed. It should be wonderful.</p>
<p id="N92CtH">On Thursday night, after the game, the podcast team will gather to do the same thing you are doing today: making our predictions for the season! Watch for that on Friday morning.</p>
<p id="IDJ6oH">For now, though, it’s your turn. Below I offer a whole series of polls for you to vote in. From these, we can get a feel for the VEB communal zeitgeist of this team. Those polls will include the team’s record, their playoff finish, best offensive player, best pitcher, etc.</p>
<p id="rSe9GH">Vote in the polls. I will provide my answer below the poll. Don’t let my opinion sway you! (You won’t want to, anyway.) After the season, if we can stomach it, we’ll come back here to review what we predicted in light of what happened. </p>
<p id="HikM8j">The comments, though, are your chance to shine! Got a bold prediction? A hot take you think might just become true? Put it down for posterity! We’ll check back at the end of the season to see if anyone got any right! And don’t worry about going crazy... we’ll forget all the horrible takes and only resurrect the good ones. Have fun, no shaming!</p>
<p id="1LAubv">To the polls!</p>
<h3 id="bOxbJc"><strong>How many wins will the 2024 Cardinals have?</strong></h3>
<div id="RvScko"><div data-anthem-component="poll:12290314"></div></div>
<p id="OVrhf0">Last year, I did something foolish. I went on record in the podcast that the Cardinals will finish with 95 wins. They nearly lost that many. Am I jaded? Am I overly pessimistic? Do I have serious questions about the starting rotation and the depth behind it? The answer is probably yes, yes, and YES.</p>
<p id="GJ0min">In light of that, I’m going with a disappointing 83 wins. Why? I think April is going to be <em>rough</em> for the Cardinals. I also think this rotation is very vulnerable. At some point, the Cardinals are going to lose one or two starters for an extended period and I just don’t know how they’ll overcome that. Thompson can’t throw 180 innings this season. Liberatore is around. I just see 4-6 rotation arms who could come in at 2.0 fWAR or less and an ace at the top who was set for significant natural regression and is going to start the season on the IL after essentially missing all of spring.</p>
<p id="XehO2d">This isn’t a worst-case scenario. But it’s close. Simply put, the Cardinals are a team that is not built to weather storms and the storms are hitting right off the top.</p>
<p id="vvzsg7">I really hope I am wrong. I’ll happily eat the crow if I am.</p>
<h3 id="p6IQ0n"><strong>Where will the Cardinals finish in the NL Central?</strong></h3>
<div id="8bkkl7"><div data-anthem-component="poll:12290316"></div></div>
<p id="Fyll9a">The NL Central is not a good division. It’s easy to think that 83 wins might take the division crown.</p>
<p id="3jYMGF">It won’t. I went back through the last 20 years of standings. The top team in the Central almost always wins over 90 games. The second-place winner almost always wins 86 games or more. </p>
<p id="l1Ode8">I predict that will happen again. The Cardinals will finish in 3<sup>rd</sup> place in the NL Central behind a surprising 90+ win <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> team and a <a href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Brewers</a> club that just barely edges out StL. I could just as easily go with the Pirates and Reds. I don’t have any idea what’s going to happen in the Central.</p>
<h3 id="cPFkHj"><strong>How deep will the Cardinals go into the postseason?</strong></h3>
<div id="rwdIu1"><div data-anthem-component="poll:12290317"></div></div>
<p id="hx3qnk">In light of my prediction above, you can guess how I will answer this one. No playoffs for the Cardinals in 2024. The biggest offseason drama we will have is a restructuring of the front office and another complete overhaul of the starting rotation.</p>
<h3 id="5WV7Qr"><strong>Who will be the best all-around offensive player? (By fWAR)</strong></h3>
<div id="G6woVR"><div data-anthem-component="poll:12290318"></div></div>
<p id="bh6kuh">I went with Lars Nootbaar. Noot’s injury isn’t likely to linger. I think he can put things together for a solid 4.5 fWAR season. He should show more power than last year, which will buoy his production. I also think Edman’s injury is going to become a big problem for the first half of the season (wrist injuries are bad for hitting). Because of that, I can easily see Noot getting quite a bit of time in CF. He’ll be ok there – average-ish – and that will boost his fWAR just above Arenado. (Who I have just under 4.0.)</p>
<h3 id="LTEukm"><strong>Who will be the best starting pitcher? (By fWAR)</strong></h3>
<div id="nwCzTS"><div data-anthem-component="poll:12290323"></div></div>
<p id="S5R7Lw">Last year, I was feeling frisky and went with Steven Matz. I’m tempted to do the same thing again for the same reasons. Maybe I’ll save that for my bold predictions. This year, though, the choice seems obvious. It has to be Gray. It <em>better</em> be Gray or something has seriously gone wrong. </p>
<p id="ZI6NET">Here’s a slightly bold prediction for you. Gray will have the highest fWAR for a starter on the season and his fWAR will be under 3.0. (Not because he’s bad, just because of a few injuries that hold to 160 IPs.)</p>
<h3 id="IibNHl"><strong>Who will be the best defensive player? (By OAA)</strong></h3>
<div id="j3nRAl"><div data-anthem-component="poll:12290325"></div></div>
<p id="7Nqe2I"><strong> </strong>I went with Arenado. There’s no reason to get cute with this one. Edman is likely to be out for a while. Winn could contend in this category in the future but he doesn’t have the defensive maturity yet. It’s not going to be any other starting outfielder or infielder. Arenado takes this one.</p>
<h3 id="XB9jTU"><strong>Who will be the most productive outfielder? (By fWAR)</strong></h3>
<div id="EsCZc1"><div data-anthem-component="poll:12290327"></div></div>
<p id="3yClPI">I have Nootbaar as the best offensive producer by fWAR, so he takes this category for me as well. Second place will be Jordan Walker, who will put in a very nice 2.5-3.0 fWAR season. The only thing that will hold him back is an improved defense that still can’t reach league average. He will have the highest wRC+ on the team at 135, just barely edging out Nootbaar (130).</p>
<h3 id="VZgmrM"><strong>My Bold Prediction</strong></h3>
<p id="U0Z9X3">Let’s get weird!</p>
<p id="08YENC">There are any number of crazy and improbable things that could happen this season. I’m sure you all will come up with many in the comments. </p>
<p id="zHkzLE">Here’s my bold take:<strong> Ivan Herrera will have a higher fWAR than Willson Contreras.</strong> </p>
<p id="T1VTmZ">That won’t be because Contreras is bad. I expect a quality offensive season from him. I just think that Herrera’s improved defense and bat will land him in the lineup regularly and that the aging Contreras will have some physical issues that push him to DH more than he wants. </p>
<p id="ICE5SK">That’s mine. Now I want yours. Head to the comments and give me those bold predictions! Remember, we’ll only keep the receipts if you’re right. </p>
<p id="K1Nca8">Happy Wednesday, Viva El Birdos!</p>
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https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2024/3/27/24112927/2024-veb-community-predictionsJ. P. Hill2024-03-26T09:00:00-04:002024-03-26T09:00:00-04:002024 Cardinals Season Predictions
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<img alt="MLB: Spring Training-Minnesota Twins at St. Louis Cardinals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/vVGzyFqK8XcHJSjasl9ihGMhKkE=/0x0:5172x3448/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73233461/usa_today_22698225.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>A new season means a new set of season predictions. Hopefully my picks turn out better than they did last year.</p> <p id="FCrAPP">Opening Day is on Thursday which means that today is my last chance to put my season predictions out there before the season begins. That’s what I want to do with this article.</p>
<p id="hPJf0c">If you’re wondering how successful I was at predicting last season, I wasn’t. At all. If you want to go back and make fun of me, though, you can see all my predictions <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2023/3/28/23659051/2023-cardinals-season-predictions">here</a>. Maybe I’m smarter this year. Or maybe I’m still dumb. We can find out together.</p>
<p id="81kUT0">Let’s just say that I’m looking for some of whatever the blogger version of better batted ball luck is this year.</p>
<p id="7ck6DW">In all seriousness, this is one of my favorite articles to write every year and it’s not because I enjoy being fantastically wrong, though that does play a small part, but because I thoroughly enjoy the discussion that comes about in the comments section.</p>
<p id="PLbqll">So after I make my picks feel free to add yours underneath this article.</p>
<p id="aBYiqB"><strong>Best Pitcher - Sonny Gray</strong></p>
<p id="DUkH1T">I wanted to start with the easy one. Is anybody really expecting anyone but Sonny Gray to be the best Cardinals pitcher this year? I guess there’s a case for Ryan Helsley but I want to point out that I’m looking at WAR here and I would be surprised (and concerned about the state of the rotation) if Ryan Helsley, a reliever, finished the year with the most fWAR on the pitching staff.</p>
<p id="HHCtIt">We do have some early season injury issues to worry about with Gray but I don’t expect him to miss much more than his first few starts. I also don’t expect Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Miles Mikolas, or Steven Matz to be pushing Gray for the top spot.</p>
<p id="aQJ3F3">I guess I like Matz the best of that group if he can stay healthy but that’s a big if. And even then Gray is still the better pitcher.</p>
<p id="UAejvB">I won’t belabor the point here. The pick is Sonny Gray and I’m not really considering anyone else seriously.</p>
<p id="ywNk7e"><strong>Best Position Player - Nolan Arenado</strong></p>
<p id="3f8VSN">Keep in mind that I’m still using fWAR as the criteria here, not wRC+ or wOBA or some other hitting-specific stat. While that may help pare down our list of candidates, there are still a lot of options here. There’s obviously Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado but Willson Contreras, Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar, and even Tommy Edman (if his CF defense is truly elite) all have a case here.</p>
<p id="Yx0mAI">Last year the correct answer was Paul Goldschmidt at 3.7 fWAR. Lars Nootbaar was behind him at 3.2 and Nolan Arenado rounded out the top 3 at 2.6.</p>
<p id="NFo80o">So why am I going with last year’s 3rd place finisher as he heads into his age 33 season? It’s because I think Arenado will bounce back this year and settle somewhere between his 7.2 fWAR 2022 season and his 2.6 fWAR 2023 season.</p>
<p id="UkSWSq">But I’m sticking with Arenado because I do believe he’ll rebound a bit this year. On both sides of the ball.</p>
<p id="DmyUnY">Defensively, Arenado struggled in the first half of the season, perhaps due to an injury that he tried to play though, but his numbers got better towards the end of the season.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Nolan Arenado OAA by month:<br><br>March/April: 3<br>May: -3<br>June: -2<br>July: 2<br>August: 3<br><br>After struggling in May and June, he's back to providing Gold Glove-caliber defense <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/STLCards?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#STLCards</a> <a href="https://t.co/zyG4pUsgXd">pic.twitter.com/zyG4pUsgXd</a></p>— Adam Akbani (@AdamAkbani) <a href="https://twitter.com/AdamAkbani/status/1691249777101459456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 15, 2023</a>
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<p id="lsa7Cc">That’s an encouraging sign.</p>
<p id="5dFNhy">And then there’s the fact that he was cruising offensively before hitting a wall at the end of the season.</p>
<p id="gk3Xu3">I’m not going to read too much into that and I don’t think it was a sign of collapse as much as I think it may have been a sign of extenuating circumstances around the team at that point in the year. </p>
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<p id="ZwmCSI">My point here is that I think a fresh season will bring a fresh Arenado and I don’t think his bat just completely fell off. He’s still plenty talented as a hitter and an offensive and defensive resurgence will re-affirm his status as the top position player on the team.</p>
<p id="qbRCM5"><strong>Rookie of the Year (not named Masyn Winn) - Victor Scott</strong></p>
<p id="nUxsQX">Technically Masyn Winn is still a rookie and that gives me an easy answer. If I’m going by technical definitions then my answer is Masyn Winn.</p>
<p id="f4eYOT">I don’t want to play technicalities though. Masyn Winn <em>is</em> a rookie but he loses his prospect status on Opening Day so plugging him in as the answer here isn’t fun. So I wanted to choose a different player for this section.</p>
<p id="1hBXy6">Which, honestly, is dumb because it makes my life a lot harder. The Cardinals don’t have any other rookies on the Opening Day roster other than a pair of relievers in Riley O’Brien and Ryan Fernandez and bench outfielder Michael Siani.</p>
<p id="ZVmYqb">None of those guys scream Rookie of the Year.</p>
<p id="o5pGg7">That means my task is now to try and predict which prospect will break into the majors, get significant playing time, and then play effectively.</p>
<p id="QwPLng">That leaves us with some interesting options. Victor Scott is a clear option, Thomas Saggese is too, and Michael McGreevy or Gordon Graceffo could be pressed into duty when the rotation gets hurt this year.</p>
<p id="0OCOm6">I also wouldn’t be shocked to see Tink Hence or Tekoah Roby get a shot if they can dominate the upper levels of the minors.</p>
<p id="jG1Re9">So who should I choose? I’m going with Victor Scott, primarily because it sounds like he will be in the majors this season even though he didn’t make the Opening Day roster.</p>
<div id="STOCDx">
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/STLCards?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#STLCards</a> manager Oli Marmol wanted to make one point clear this morning: Victor Scott II will help this team. This season.</p>— Ben Frederickson (@Ben_Fred) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ben_Fred/status/1771546393280213042?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 23, 2024</a>
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<p id="dhkubI">I could see McGreevy or Graceffo getting a long look in the rotation but I’m not too high on either of those guys being more than back-end starters (which is still a valuable outcome). And I like Saggese a lot but the Cardinals have a lot of non-SS infield depth which makes it hard to see a regular role for Saggese.</p>
<p id="PWhilf">That leaves me with Scott whose defense and speed will be an asset in the major leagues whenever he get promoted.</p>
<p id="L6l3L7"><strong>Pitcher Breakout - Riley O’Brien and Zack Thompson</strong></p>
<p id="pBJgIm">After all of my offseason and spring discussion of Andre Pallante’s reworked breaking balls, my answer here is not Pallante. If you read my articles regularly that might surprise you.</p>
<p id="LRgoeL">I have to admit that I thought long and hard about choosing Pallante but there are a couple factors that made me pivot. The first is that Pallante’s “reworked breaking balls” have become Pallante’s “reworked breaking ball”. This is important to me. Pallante reshaped his curveball into a “death ball” this offseason and he has shown us that new pitch shape in Spring Training.</p>
<p id="xorqNo">What Pallante hasn’t shown us is a reshaped slider. He put in some work this offseason to turn his slider into a sweeper but he has pocketed that pitch all spring. And while I was excited about the death ball (and still am), it was the sweeper that had the potential to make Pallante more effective against righties and give him a real swing and miss pitch.</p>
<p id="FKsWAG">I was hoping to see a legit sweeper from Pallante this spring and that simply hasn’t materialized. So am I down on Pallante now? Absolutely not! I want to stress that. But I am slightly higher on Zack Thompson and Riley O’Brien.</p>
<p id="X2jFY5">Yes, I am cheating by choosing two pitchers but I simply couldn’t choose. Riley O’Brien simply has electric stuff, misses a ton of bats, and has shown a harder livelier sinker this spring. </p>
<p id="OA4RwC">And then there’s the fact that he has the best stuff+ of any pitcher on the Cardinals staff this spring.</p>
<div id="PCEfBn">
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Cardinals Spring Training Stuff+ rankings:<br><br>O’Brien - 127<br>Kittredge - 114.4<br>Middleton - 113<br>Gallegos -108.4<br>Gray - 105.1<br>Helsley -102.4<br>Liberatore - 100.4<br>Gibson - 96.3<br>Matz - 94.8<br>Fernandez - 93.9<br>Pallante - 93.2<br>Romero - 88.5<br>Mikolas - 86.2<br>Lynn - 84.8<br>Thompson - 70.9</p>— Blake Newberry (@bt_newberry) <a href="https://twitter.com/bt_newberry/status/1772351499001123129?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 25, 2024</a>
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<p id="zSu8NN">O’Brien has real breakout potential in the bullpen.</p>
<p id="3dHt1w">Zack Thompson is who I want to focus on though. In my spring training notebooks I’ve discussed Thompson’s new changeup shape (a shape that I absolutely love) and the fact that his fastball has shown more riding life this spring. Add that to the fact that he is starting the season in the rotation and we’re not taking a pitcher who was good last year, has made some positive changes this year, and now has a legitimate opportunity in the rotation.</p>
<p id="70YEuV">That’s all the ingredients for a breakout season.</p>
<p id="e0LjzZ">I wouldn’t be shocked if Thompson was a rotation staple by the end of the season (or even before that) and pitched well enough to be in the playoff rotation (assuming the Cardinals make the playoffs) and also pitched well enough to secure his spot in next year’s rotation.</p>
<p id="VYx96j">Just because Stuff+ hates Zack Thompson doesn’t mean I do. Give me all of that Zack Thompson stock right now.</p>
<p id="eVGTqo"><strong>Position Player Breakout - Ivan Herrera</strong></p>
<p id="zbDkcO">Before I talk about my actual pick I want to throw something out there. I expect Nolan Gorman to take the next step this year and be a crucial player for this team. He would be my pick but I’m not letting myself call him a “breakout” after the year he had in 2023.</p>
<p id="0qCAzq">He has already broken out and we already know he’s good. So I’m turning to another player I believe in who hasn’t broken out at the major league level yet.</p>
<p id="Nm8pAi">And oddly enough that player isn’t Masyn Winn. I know that Winn will likely get more playing time than Herrera since the former is penciled in as the Opening Day shortstop. I get that. But I also think that Winn will take longer to reach his peak at the major league level than Herrera.</p>
<p id="w034TR">Winn has a lot of tools but I question the impact of the bat and his general feel for the shortstop position. He’s going to be a human highlight reel and I do expect his bat to come around and his glove to get better, I’m just not sure it’s going to happen as quickly as I would need it to for him to be my selection here.</p>
<p id="cpJQpS">I’m not saying that he’ll be a bad player this year, I’m just not ready to predict a breakout season.</p>
<p id="qMY88G">I feel differently about Ivan Herrera. In fact, in some ways 2023 was Herrera’s breakout season. His 147 wRC+ in Triple-A was much better than his 11 wRC+ at the same level the year prior or his 104 wRC+ in Double-A in 2021.</p>
<p id="PAYQWN">That’s due in part to a power surge that saw Herrera put up an ISO over .203 for the first time in his career and it’s also due to his freakish 20% walk rate that was almost certainly boosted by ABS but was also helped by pitchers pitching around him.</p>
<p id="wS0cDP">The power surge showed up in Herrera’s batted ball metrics too. His max exit velocity (113.3 mph) and 95th percentile exit velocity (109 mph) show strong upper tier exit velocities and while his average exit velocity was dragged down a bit by some weak contact (88.6 mph) he still showed a strong ability to find the sweet spot with regularity.</p>
<p id="GnDZT4">This boost at the plate wasn’t just something that happened either. It came after Herrera spent the 2022 season tweaking his swing before settling on something in 2023.</p>
<div id="82pRQq">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ivan Herrera swing and stance change<br><br>2022: .736 OPS (17 XBH)<br>2023: .929 OPS (40 XBH)<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/STLCards?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#STLCards</a> <a href="https://t.co/yTTGwPmxgS">pic.twitter.com/yTTGwPmxgS</a></p>— Jacob (@JacobE_STL) <a href="https://twitter.com/JacobE_STL/status/1760345467169243199?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 21, 2024</a>
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<p id="ArO4Dm">This change paid huge dividends for a player who is now in line for a good amount of playing time as the number 2 catcher behind Willson Contreras.</p>
<p id="xm57Bk">Herrera is my position player breakout pick this year.</p>
<p id="djVwaI"><strong>Predicted Record - 84-78 (1st in NL Central)</strong></p>
<p id="SplDw1">Last year I was excited about the team and I couldn’t have been more wrong. So I’m tempering myself this year. It doesn’t help that the Cardinals are beginning the year with a lot of key injuries, even if they are supposedly minor, but I also question the rotation a bit.</p>
<p id="tCjKNk">Still, though, I do think this is a team that can finish above .500 and I do think this is a team that can win the division. Would I be shocked if that didn’t happen? No. But I think that 84 wins is good enough to get the team first place in a weak but competitive NL Central.</p>
<p id="1DraWR"><strong>Offseason Free Agent Predictions Contest Update</strong></p>
<p id="66NSxS">While we’re making predictions today I want to take a second to provide an update on VEB’s offseason free agent predictions contest that began just prior to the start of free agency.</p>
<p id="xi3Ybo">If you need a refresher on the rules or what this is, then click <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2023/10/29/23935341/viva-el-birdos-2023-offseason-free-agent-predictions-contest">here</a> to read the article I wrote introducing the contest.</p>
<p id="D90HeE">The predictions were made on a google form that contained 25 names. The goal was to predict for each player, the team they would sign with, the length of the contract, the total value of the contract, and the average annual value.</p>
<p id="NI7jHk">For scoring, I gave out one point for correctly choosing the team and one point for correctly predicting the contract length with two points being given for each of the financial components of your prediction.</p>
<p id="omFxiR">That meant that up to 6 points could be earned for each player. Multiply that by the 25 players on the form and there were 150 total points up for grabs.</p>
<p id="cwS6lx">All but 2 players have now signed, with the exceptions being Jordan Montgomery and Tommy Pham, so while there are still a possible 12 points to be had, we’re coming down to the wire.</p>
<p id="4IFX6W">I will provide a final update when Montgomery and Pham sign, but here are the current top 5 contract prediction experts in our contest this year.</p>
<ol>
<li id="kOIBTl">Lawbird - 49.5 points</li>
<li id="nzJRTq">stlwildcats - 45 points</li>
<li id="rP5GPw">Bronco592 - 40 points</li>
<li id="BTniH5">DeWallet Inspector - 37.5 points</li>
<li id="h2luod">BirdswithBats - 36 points</li>
<li id="xIRh5s">Richard McGill - 36 points</li>
</ol>
<p id="E98p6O">The full leaderboard can be accessed in a google sheet linked <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15yxG0huk5o0tC3p1W4TXD6aS745WVXEPjhl5lV-Oj3w/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>.</p>
<p id="GvUHoY">Congrats to Lawbird and the rest of the top of the leaderboard and thanks to everyone who participated this offseason!</p>
<p id="agqQWj"><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></p>
<p id="w9wz8i">Feel free to return to these predictions when they flop spectacularly but now that they’re out there, I want to hear yours too. What record do you think the <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">St. Louis Cardinals</a> will finish with? Who are your breakout players? Who will pace the team on the mound and in the field? Hit the comments to join the discussion.</p>
<p id="sc7Ie1">This is it for my spring training coverage and I could not be more excited to have some real meaningful baseball to discuss again. Opening Day is just two days away.</p>
<p id="eY4gwh">Thanks for reading.</p>
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2024/3/26/24110597/2024-cardinals-season-predictionsBlake Newberry2024-03-25T09:00:00-04:002024-03-25T09:00:00-04:00What Cardinal makes sense to sign to an extension?
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<img alt="MLB: St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/AsGjfY2WXkvx_Nyl6RHXiFGlPqI=/0x0:6566x4377/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73231016/usa_today_20918120.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>It has to make sense for the player too, so the player you’re thinking of is probably not what this is about</p> <p id="RcTWbe">There was a long-standing assumption, pretty much since Paul Goldschmidt won his MVP, that he would receive an extension during the current spring training. That appears to not be happening. It certainly makes sense. The Cardinals have a few internal candidates who could look like equal or better options to Goldy by the end of 2024, and certainly cheaper options. There is not a lot of upside to an extension and a whole lot of downside.</p>
<p id="ibppck">Maybe it makes sense to extend somebody else? Well, let’s find out. I don’t think it’s as simple as some people make it out to be. It has to make sense for both the team and the player and unless the player is really committed to getting his guaranteed money on the books now, those interests rarely align.</p>
<p id="kjjlw4">The player has to have some reason to reduce risk and get the guaranteed money. This usually means the player is a pitcher, an unheralded position player prospect, or a player whose skillset doesn’t demand large free agent prices in the first place. This describes Carlos Martinez, Matt Carpenter, Kolten Wong, Stephen Piscotty, Allen Craig, and Paul DeJong. </p>
<p id="GIA6Rh">Carpenter and Craig were never really prospects because they were always old for their level, and Wong and Piscotty were back half top 100 prospects but ones who lacked upside. DeJong was barely a top 10 team prospect, and obviously Martinez was a pitcher. And frankly, with the exception of Carpenter, these were all great extensions for the player. (I’m referring to Carpenter’s first team-friendly extension).</p>
<p id="AmHRo4">You can see where I’m going with this right? Nolan Gorman is a popular extension candidate from fans, but Nolan Gorman has no reason to sign an extension. Especially right now. If you’re a player and you think you haven’t reached your full potential and that you will reach it, you shouldn’t sign an extension. Same applies to Jordan Walker. There’s no reason for you give a bargain to the team. Both also have skillsets that will get paid in free agency. Gorman will hit free agency at 29, Walker at 28.</p>
<p id="WLkSTO">I know people want the Cardinals to sign these guys to a team-friendly extension, but if I’m their agent, I’m advising them not to, unless the Cardinals blow me away. The Cardinals have no reason to agree to that though. They already have Walker for six years, and Gorman for five years.</p>
<p id="VEl3Bc">So in searching for potential extension candidates where I think the other side might be amenable for one reason or another, there are surprisingly few candidates. All the pitchers are old, and I would never sign a reliever to an extension (if one must, Gallegos’s contract is a very good one). The starting pitching prospects probably should at least debut in the majors before you consider a long-term deal.</p>
<p id="FcBgQk">So if I’m eliminating Walker and Gorman, that really only leaves two candidates: Masyn Winn and Brendan Donovan. In theory, there’s a narrow window where Winn makes sense for both sides. Capitalize on Winn being unproven and sign him to an extension from the Cardinals’ perspective and for Winn, get that guaranteed money now while he’s unproven. Of course, this requires some cooperation from Winn and it may make the most sense to him to prove himself first and raise any potential extension price. Or just reach free agency at 28 like Walker.</p>
<p id="OzOq2v">In Donovan’s case, he is a direct comp to Matt Carpenter. Carpenter signed his first extension in spring training 2014, when he had 2 years and change of service time. Brendan Donovan is currently in spring training when he has exactly 2 years of service time. They aren’t the same type of hitter, but both had the same amount of acclaim as prospects (none), play multiple positions, and four years left until they hit free agency. Donovan is a year younger, and will be a free agent a year earlier. But waiting to get a big payday at 31 (when he’s first eligible) is a bit of a risk. So I could see it. Let’s formulate what extensions might look like.</p>
<p id="SZVYIN"><strong>Masyn Winn</strong></p>
<p id="r4B85C">We have Winn’s ZiPS projection through age 24, which is helpful, though I’d still like to know his projection through age 26, because his projection rises each year, and I’m not entirely sure at what point it would start declining. I say age 26, because I would personally guess that’s the age where it starts being more static. But hell, I can guess. His three-year projections are</p>
<p id="Y2Lv0l">2024: 2.4</p>
<p id="Gi2myp">2025: 2.6</p>
<p id="6fK55a">2026: 2.9</p>
<p id="AC5vyb">The 2024 number is very optimistic and not something I would base a contract on - it’s far too reliant on elite defensive numbers and I trust ZiPS defensive metrics a little bit more than George Santos. But just a bit. However, it’s kind of irrelevant for the purposes of an extension weirdly enough. His projection for 2024 and 2025 don’t really matter. Those are league minimum years. His 2026 number matters very much because that year defines what his arbitration salaries will be, and thus the framework behind the deal. </p>
<p id="JsN4fn">One assumption I have to make is what Winn’s age 25 season will look like, and because I assume ZiPS thinks a player will, on average, improve from age 24 to age 25, I have his 2027 at 3.2 WAR. I am also going to assume that his age 26 WAR will stay at 3.2 WAR. Thus, his entire extension will be defined by two things: his arbitration salaries based upon being a 2.9 WAR player and his free agent salary based upon being a 3.2 WAR player. That’s where we go from there.</p>
<p id="IhYxhY">Point of Pittbsurgh, which might be a bit outdated, but it doesn’t necessarily matter for the sake of an extension, says that players will typically get 25% of their free agent value in year 1, 40% in year 2, and 62% in year 3. At $10 million per win (and thus being valued at $29 million), that means Winn is currently projected to earn $7.3 million, $11.6 million, and $18 million.</p>
<p id="PS9tto">Picking how many years to make the deal is tricky, because hypothetically Winn might still want to be set to reach free agency at a reasonable age. Unless we’re going to make this contract really crazy, I think one free agent year and one team option year is going to have to do. Winn will still be set to be a free agent at age 30. Cards get prime years, Winn still gets a shot at a bigger payday.</p>
<p id="M5RiKA">Cards get a bit of a discount for the security, let’s say 80% of the overall value. That’s $57 million. We can reduce a little bit of the free agent year by giving him a pay bump for the next three years. So instead of $2.5 million for the next three years combined, he gets $2 million each year. He’ll get his normal arb prices at $7.5 million and $12 million, but we’ll have to re-arrange the next two years since he’d get less than his 3rd arbitration under this structure. So instead the next two years are at $16 million each. To increase the overall value of the deal, the team option will come with a $5 million buyout. So by signing the deal, Masyn Winn guarantees himself $62 million with a career 29 wRC+ and -0.8 fWAR. That team option year should probably reflect a free agent price, so I’ll say $25 million for that year. That means the structure of the deal is:</p>
<p id="zKpZQd">2024: $2 million</p>
<p id="zOvsoI">2025: $2 million</p>
<p id="c6D8ev">2026: $2 million</p>
<p id="9FEh3C">2027: $7.5 million</p>
<p id="fCQKno">2028: $12 million</p>
<p id="gIv59U">2029: $16 million</p>
<p id="FsXVJt">2030: $16 million</p>
<p id="mtJTdf">2031 $25 million ($5 million buyout)</p>
<p id="pb7gIp">The Cardinals don’t get very creative with their contracts, but to entice Winn further, I would maybe say if he either is top 10 in MVP voting or makes an All-Star game in 2029, $5 million is added to both his 2030 salary and his buyout. But we’ll keep it simple. His final guaranteed money would be $62 million with a $25 million option.</p>
<p id="lgKWcQ">Yesterday in fact, Ezequiel Tovar just signed an extension somewhat similar to this (7 years, $63 million with a club option.) Difference being that he is one year closer to free agency than Winn is. So Winn technically gets less than Tovar, but he has an extra league minimum year and Tovar has an extra free agent year in his deal. So Winn’s deal, despite being less than Tovar, is actually <em>better</em> than Tovar’s deal. (Tovar’s team option is most likely less than $25 million as well)</p>
<p id="B4mDNo">I myself would sign Winn to this, I’m not sure Winn would sign it. I’m not sure the Cardinals would either quite frankly. It does not come without risk, since projections are just projections. But Winn seems like a good player to bet on.</p>
<p id="NFhERc">7 years, $57 million with $25 million club option ($5 million buyout)</p>
<p id="C6V4oK"><strong>Brendan Donovan</strong></p>
<p id="0IPRzG">Donovan doesn’t actually make sense to extend if you use projections. They are not great. Unlike Winn, they get worse every year. Carpenter was coming off his top 10 MVP finish season back in 2013, so the circumstances are a bit different when it comes to extending Brendan Donovan. His next three years are 1.8, 1.6 and 1.4 WAR. Some of that is simply plate appearances. Due to missing two months last year, he projects for about 475 PAs every year.</p>
<p id="VUCh0p">So we’re going to go on faith in Brendan Donovan with this extension. We’re not going to go too crazy, but we’re going to assume that 3-year projection is wrong. We will value Brendan Donovan as a 2 WAR player, that’s it. This does not seem crazy to me. Because we are mimicking the Matt Carpenter extension, some of his decline years will be featured in the deal so the WAR will decline.</p>
<p id="xKukuz">Even with the underwhelming 2024 projection, he would still be valued as a 2 WAR player by arbitration I imagine, so that doesn’t change. Even though it wouldn’t be reflected in the projections, I’m also going to say his projected WAR for this contract won’t decline until he turns 31. Which just so happens to be his free agent years. This far in the future, I’m just going to make this easy and say he’s 1.5 WAR player in value both free agent years. Okay what does this contract look like?</p>
<p id="BEIRGH">2024: $2 million </p>
<p id="q9T9fl">2025: $5 million (Arb 1)</p>
<p id="ixiaPu">2026: $9 million (Arb 2)</p>
<p id="vRIdOy">2027: $11 million (Arb 3)</p>
<p id="vxaqxh">2028: $13 million (FA)</p>
<p id="ikJjlk">2029: $13 million (FA)</p>
<p id="Z68Yke">2030: $15 million club option ($1 million buyout)</p>
<p id="pAQKBg">I already explained the process for Winn, so I didn’t feel like I needed to go over that again. But here’s the logic. If he’s valued as a 2 WAR player through his arbitration years, and a 1.5 WAR player through his free agent years, for the next 6 years, he’d be worth $55 million. 90% of that value is $50 million (Donovan is more of a sure thing than Winn, hence less of a discount.) If you add up the numbers, it’s $49 million and the $1 million buyout makes it $50 million.</p>
<p id="7d5mBn">If you think this deal is crazy, coming off a 7.2 WAR season, Matt Carpenter signed for 6 years, $52 million. Inflation and all, but still: Donovan is coming off a much worse season than that with even more uncertainty than that. If you believe the projections, Donovan should leap at this offer.</p>
<p id="F4LDiQ">6 years, $49 million with $15 million club option ($1 million buyout)</p>
<p id="dmc7Z8">If you would jump at these offers, just remember how quickly people complained about the Paul DeJong deal. How the Martinez deal suddenly was a problem. How the Piscotty deal aged. The Allen Craig deal. They all looked like incredible deals at the time. I’m not saying we shouldn’t sign my proposed deals, I’m just saying there’s more risk involved than what people probably think.</p>
<p id="78htHZ">And from the players’ side, they are removing of lot of upside from their earnings potential. I, a mere mortal who stopped playing baseball freshman year of high school, would jump at guaranteed money like this. But they, who have the utmost confidence in their ability and that confidence has been rewarded enormously, probably believe in themselves and their ability to reach their upside. So that’s why the team friendly extensions can be hard to do.</p>
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2024/3/25/24111078/what-cardinal-makes-sense-to-sign-to-an-extensionstlcardsfan42024-03-24T09:00:00-04:002024-03-24T09:00:00-04:00Spring Training Notebook - Week 4
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<img alt="MLB: Spring Training-Houston Astros at St. Louis Cardinals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/FpEFIqImcnhSqZFwaCuVLtKkcoM=/0x8:4638x3100/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73229243/usa_today_22826011.0.jpg" />
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<p>My final Spring Training notebook contains my thoughts on a few pitchers, a hitting prospect that has stood out to me, and my take on the seemingly finalized roster.</p> <p id="wI4kA7">Happy Sunday Viva El Birdos! This is the final Sunday without regular baseball for a long while and that gets me pumped. That also means this is my final Spring Training notebook of the year.</p>
<p id="qSpaYM">So in this final notebook I want to point out a few more tweaks that I’ve noticed from a couple pitchers while also giving my take on a hitting prospect that has stood out to me, the seemingly finalized roster, and the <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">St. Louis Cardinals</a> Rule 5 pick who seems to be an Opening Day roster lock.</p>
<p id="aJjzvq">Let’s get straight into it.</p>
<p id="Z3PklZ"><strong>Zack Thompson’s Fastball</strong></p>
<p id="irsWW0">I’ve written about Zack Thompson at length all offseason and all spring but I want to bring him up one final time before the season starts.</p>
<p id="I70mh2">Previously when I’ve written about Thompson, I have focused on his new changeup which Statcast actually labels as a forkball due to its extreme lack of spin. The pitch is clearly better than his old changeup and I suspect that Thompson, a lefty, will use this new grip to really get after righties.</p>
<p id="Ilod9y">I won’t say any more about that, though, because today I want to focus on Thompson’s fastball.</p>
<div id="fhhyVH">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">If you've read my stuff at VEB, you'll know that I'm super intrigued by Zack Thompson's new changeup/forkball.<br><br>That's not his only improvement this spring though.<br><br>2023 Fastball IVB: 14.9 in<br>2024 Fastball IVB: 17.4 in<br><br>I'm excited by what I've seen from ZT so far.</p>— Blake Newberry (@bt_newberry) <a href="https://twitter.com/bt_newberry/status/1770818579572629733?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 21, 2024</a>
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<p id="jewDdb">I tweeted that prior to Thompson’s most recent spring training outing and his fastball wasn’t quite as lively last time out which brought his average induced vertical break down to 16.6 inches.</p>
<p id="HjvqWx">That tells us all we need to know about looking into spring numbers. They can change quickly and aren’t necessarily indicative of what we will see in the regular season.</p>
<p id="YDfFHv">Still, though, it’s notable that Thompson’s fastball is getting almost 2 extra inches of IVB when compared to last season. Is this legit? Who knows? What I do know is that Thompson was at Tread Athletics in the offseason to pick up his new changeup and would it really be that surprising if we learned that he spent some time working on his fastball while he was there?</p>
<p id="JO5hZe">I think not.</p>
<p id="hxn6di">So keep an eye on Thompson this year. A better changeup and a better fastball could help him really take a step forward. He’s a player that I’m starting to feel pretty high on and I wouldn’t be shocked if he was a staple in the rotation come season’s end.</p>
<p id="h5lsfl"><strong>Andre Pallante’s Fastball</strong></p>
<p id="XyWVDZ">Like with Zack Thompson, I have also written extensively about Andre Pallante this offseason. Most of my efforts have been focused on his breaking balls, though, since he already has a fantastic fastball.</p>
<p id="SGxw2n">So why was he experimenting with his fastball in his last game?</p>
<div id="U9mkLT">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Andre Pallante’s 4-seam fastball only reached 17+ IVB three times last season.<br><br>In todays game alone, he’s done it 4 times while still averaging 95.2 mph <a href="https://t.co/wSFLvEpok8">https://t.co/wSFLvEpok8</a></p>— Jacob (@JacobE_STL) <a href="https://twitter.com/JacobE_STL/status/1770882254669045814?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 21, 2024</a>
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<p id="vbrTSz">My answer is simply because it’s spring training. Why not experiment with things? We already know that Pallante has a fastball that can get an absurd amount of ground balls. But what if Pallante was able to elevate his fastball for whiffs? That would just give him another tool in is arsenal to show to hitters when the time is right.</p>
<p id="CwNEp5">This is why I think Pallante toyed with his fastball in his last outing.</p>
<p id="OaSJep">We know that a riding four-seamer (which is different from his typical cut/sink four-seamer) is something that Pallante worked on in the offseason.</p>
<div id="KsGVJY">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Cut/ride fastball pitch design with Cardinals reliever Andre Pallante.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Baseball?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Baseball</a> <a href="https://t.co/crEMwjKC5r">pic.twitter.com/crEMwjKC5r</a></p>— Tread Athletics (@TreadHQ) <a href="https://twitter.com/TreadHQ/status/1730259107955823015?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 30, 2023</a>
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<p id="AFwjJf">From the Twitter thread that explained why Pallante and Tread Athletics toyed with Pallante’s already excellent fastball, it seemed like the pair simply had an idea that was worth pursuing but ultimately not worth implementing.</p>
<div id="04FUGE">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">In short, sometimes it cuts, and sometimes it sinks. My claim was that with a grip change, he could get a consistent cutter profile. <br><br>The original thread is attached below ⬇️ <a href="https://t.co/O5fS93VvCe">https://t.co/O5fS93VvCe</a></p>— Alex Kachler (@Alexkachler10) <a href="https://twitter.com/Alexkachler10/status/1731792956988723358?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 4, 2023</a>
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<p id="K0ZQv9">So the fact that Pallante broke out this fastball in-game in surprising. I do have some concern that him throwing that pitch will mess with his feel for his other pitches and his feel for his typical fastball, but that’s why Spring Training exists. This is the time to try things out.</p>
<p id="Mx9eOJ">Will we see Pallante break out this riding fastball in the regular season? I don’t know. But what I do know is that this is a pitch he has in his back pocket so there’s always a chance.</p>
<p id="xeWTW6"><strong>Matthew Liberatore’s New Pitch</strong></p>
<p id="t4nIdz">With Matthew Liberatore officially making the Cardinals bullpen, now seems like a good time to point out that he has toyed with a new pitch this spring.</p>
<p id="K5D9KZ">It’s hard to get the pitch metrics for it because Statcast has actually labeled this pitch as a slider most of the time but Liberatore has broken out a cutter and it’s a pitch that could be interesting for him.</p>
<p id="il2nKZ">The pitch has sat 90-91 mph on average with moderate cutting action (4.7 inches on average, though I suspect that figure is a bit high due to misclassified sliders) and looks like it could be a solid pitch for the left-hander at that velocity.</p>
<p id="IbvM5a">Since Liberatore already throws something of a gyro slider (which is about 4-5 mph slower than the cutter), I would be curious to see if he ends up throwing both the cutter and the slider this year since they have similar movement profiles with the main difference being the extra velocity of the cutter.</p>
<p id="tsO5VD">Liberatore did fare much worse against right-handed hitters last year so this could also be an effort for him to be more effective against right-handed hitters by adding a hard pitch that he can use to work inside.</p>
<p id="63BuSn">I have no idea if this is something that we’ll see Liberatore beak out in the regular season but I’ll definitely be watching for it.</p>
<p id="3enYzc"><strong>Ryan Fernandez’s Pitch Usage</strong></p>
<p id="NXeQe6">It’s time we had a talk about Ryan Fernandez. The Cardinals selected Fernandez in the Rule 5 draft this offseason and, as a Rule 5 draft sicko, I was glad to see the Cardinals make the pick but I preferred Justin Slaten, who was drafted with the very next pick.</p>
<p id="fhAZTR">Now that doesn’t mean I don’t like Fernandez. I do. But Fernandez comes with some questions and the major one is his fastball shape.</p>
<p id="UrhPPw">I’ve heard that it was better in the past but it wasn’t great last year and that led to plenty of hard contact. This spring, we have seen much improvement either:</p>
<div id="PMtNXY"><div data-anthem-component="table:12287883"></div></div>
<p id="O8tqDr">At least we’ve seen Fernandez sitting 95+ but that’s not an exciting fastball shape, especially after seeing how hard it got hit in Triple-A last year (96.2 mph avg EV).</p>
<p id="vtHet3">So the fastball is probably not his strong suit. But what we saw Fernandez do really well last year was miss bats with his slider (69.2% whiff rate) and cutter (40.5% whiff rate).</p>
<p id="lXwW9h">You can probably see where I’m going with this:</p>
<div id="yq90pT">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">This won't happen but the more I think about Ryan Fernandez the more I want him to go full Robert Stephenson and throw his cutter like 70% of the time</p>— Blake Newberry (@bt_newberry) <a href="https://twitter.com/bt_newberry/status/1733155455659024387?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 8, 2023</a>
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<p id="moFs21">I tweeted this in December and I still feel the same way. So how have Fernandez’s pitch usages shaken out this spring? Well...he’s about 50/50 and that’s not good enough for me. I simply don’t have confidence in Fernandez’s fastball.</p>
<p id="ueEPYJ">That’s why I want to see Fernandez pitch like Robert Stephenson or Keynan Middleton and throw his best pitch (cutter/slider) a ton to help hide his fastball. This isn’t a typical Cardinals strategy but I’m hoping we see it this year with Fernandez.</p>
<p id="psyIsz">So if you were to ask me how I feel about Fernandez this year, my answer would be — it depends. And it depends almost entirely on his pitch usage. I’m fascinated to see how things play out with him and I know that I can’t wait to watch him pitch in meaningful games.</p>
<p id="quD20S"><strong>Cesar Prieto’s Strong Spring</strong></p>
<p id="kgA9S6">I don’t really have a whole lot of numbers or metrics for this section. Cesar Prieto is just someone who has impressed me when I’ve watched him. That’s it. His bat-to-ball skills are exceptional, which isn’t a surprise since that has always been his calling card, and it’s been fun to watch him hit everything this spring.</p>
<p id="cBdxBT">Here’s a triple from the spring breakout game:</p>
<div id="WUuLmc">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="es" dir="ltr">César Prieto triple!<a href="https://twitter.com/Cardinals?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Cardinals</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/CardsPlayerDev?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CardsPlayerDev</a> <a href="https://t.co/SGxnt6lmGX">pic.twitter.com/SGxnt6lmGX</a></p>— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/1768714076706775118?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 15, 2024</a>
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<p id="hQmg3y">And here he is hitting a tough lefty:</p>
<div id="sXBShO">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="es" dir="ltr">A little <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PokePoke?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#PokePoke</a> actíon by César Prieto drives in Iván Herrera <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/stlcards?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#stlcards</a> <a href="https://t.co/XgCggZwjIE">pic.twitter.com/XgCggZwjIE</a></p>— cardinalsgifs (@cardinalsgifs) <a href="https://twitter.com/cardinalsgifs/status/1770219903653716217?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 19, 2024</a>
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<p id="6xB3aR">Prieto is such an interesting player to me. And by interesting, I mean that I really don’t know what to think about him. I love watching him hit but I question the level of impact he can have at the major league level as a player who chases everything (i.e. doesn’t walk much) and doesn’t hit for much power.</p>
<p id="sz3eqJ">On the other hand, though, whenever I watch him, he’s always impressive. I mean, the guy just hits and I don’t know if there is a pitch that he can’t hit. I actually think that’s why he chases so much - he knows that he can hit anything.</p>
<p id="wJxtwL">He doesn’t chase things that are way out of the zone, which is a positive, but he is more than willing to expand the edges of the zone in his effort to hit everything.</p>
<p id="JqryhW">Prieto obviously isn’t going to make the roster and isn’t even a player I’m particularly high on but he has had a great spring so I wanted to at least bring him up in my final Spring Training notebook.</p>
<p id="3J04a5"><strong>The Final Roster</strong></p>
<p id="ick91M">The Cardinals seem to have their Opening Day roster set after a series of roster moves on Saturday.</p>
<p id="12IBq3">The most notable decision was sending Victor Scott to minor league camp (and that is a decision I agree with).</p>
<div id="Jh4OF5">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Victor Scott II has been reassigned to minor league camp.<br><br>Dylan Carlson is the CF.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/stlcards?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#stlcards</a></p>— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) <a href="https://twitter.com/dgoold/status/1771526391009325095?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 23, 2024</a>
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<p id="HYW1Lc">This decision not only means that Dylan Carlson will be starting in center field but that Michael Siani has also made the roster.</p>
<div id="9XVj9S">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Other <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/STLCards?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#STLCards</a> notes:<br><br>Michael Siani has been informed he's made the club.<br><br>There is one open bullpen spot remaining, which will be decided most likely in Arizona.<br><br>Remaining spring starters: Lynn (3/24), Matz (3/25), Gibson (3/26)</p>— Katie Woo (@katiejwoo) <a href="https://twitter.com/katiejwoo/status/1771571745595486320?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 23, 2024</a>
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<p id="Gduq85">The bullpen and rotation also have some clarity too.</p>
<div id="BneVF0">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Cardinals manager Oli Marmol said Sonny Gray will start the season on the IL. Zack Thompson will make the club and start in the rotation. Matthew Liberatore will also make the club and be in the bullpen. Lars Nootbaar also set to start the season on the IL. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/STLCards?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#STLCards</a></p>— Lynn Worthy (@LWorthySports) <a href="https://twitter.com/LWorthySports/status/1771268594703249824?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 22, 2024</a>
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<p id="aZHKsk">So this means that the position battles have pretty much been decided. While the official reporting still has the final bullpen spot as an open competition, I think that is all but decided too.</p>
<p id="WrltX5">I would be shocked if the bullpen didn’t get consist of the following 8 names:</p>
<div id="md3wXs">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">With the news today, I'm guessing the Opening Day bullpen looks like...<br><br>Right Side:<br> - Helsley<br> - Gallegos<br> - Kittredge<br> - Fernandez<br> - O'Brien<br> - Pallante<br><br>Left Side:<br> - Romero<br> - Libby</p>— Blake Newberry (@bt_newberry) <a href="https://twitter.com/bt_newberry/status/1771273917186875779?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 22, 2024</a>
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<p id="Q67qX3">This has the potential to be a really solid bullpen and it’s a group that I’m excited to watch.</p>
<p id="9hVdzA">The outfield will seemingly have the alignment that I argued for in last week’s notebook - Brendan Donovan in left field, Dylan Carlson in center, and Jordan Walker in right, with Siani as the bench glove and late game substitute.</p>
<p id="QsVhWx">Basically everything that happened here I agree with.</p>
<p id="jbgRnZ">I don’t want Victor Scott rushed to the majors just because there’s a hole in centerfield for a few weeks and I also want to see Carlson get a few weeks of regular starting playing time. And then in the bullpen, Riley O’Brien absolutely deserves to be on the team and I’m curious to see what Pallante looks like after some offseason work.</p>
<p id="4B3BAY">I was hoping the Cardinals would end up making exactly these decisions and I’m glad they came to these conclusions.</p>
<p id="6lEjvZ"><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></p>
<p id="LPs0eF">With the regular season beginning this coming week, this will be my final Spring Training notebook. I hope you enjoyed the series! I had a great time writing these pieces and looking into what tweaks some players were working on and seeing what prospects stood out this spring.</p>
<p id="sPTtaJ">Thanks for reading!</p>
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2024/3/24/24109548/spring-training-notebook-week-4Blake Newberry2024-03-23T09:00:00-04:002024-03-23T09:00:00-04:00Birdos in Brief: Gray, Nootbaar to Start Season on IL
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<img alt="MLB: Spring Training-St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/SYYdB1fu8QGW6cyFEksB1B-mChc=/0x0:7601x5067/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73227849/usa_today_22692043.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Gray and Nootbaar will be out to start the season.</p> <p id="2tUxhB">News broke on Friday that the Cardinals’ priced pitching acquisition this winter will officially start the season on the IL as he rehabs his injured hamstring. Joining him will be starting left fielder Lars Nootbaar.</p>
<div id="saN1ep">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Cardinals manager Oli Marmol said Sonny Gray will start the season on the IL. Zack Thompson will make the club and start in the rotation. Matthew Liberatore will also make the club and be in the bullpen. Lars Nootbaar also set to start the season on the IL. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/STLCards?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#STLCards</a></p>— Lynn Worthy (@LWorthySports) <a href="https://twitter.com/LWorthySports/status/1771268594703249824?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 22, 2024</a>
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<p id="etpjbm">Zack Thompson will take Gray’s spot in the rotation and Matthew Liberatore will make the club and work out of the bullpen. </p>
<p id="sVPHp4">Here is Liberatore’s reaction to the news:</p>
<div id="EvDbZ4">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Cardinals left-hander Matthew Liberatore got good news today. I asked him about his reaction to him and Zack Thompson making the club. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/STLCards?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#STLCards</a> <a href="https://t.co/lURwnkLMf5">pic.twitter.com/lURwnkLMf5</a></p>— Lynn Worthy (@LWorthySports) <a href="https://twitter.com/LWorthySports/status/1771289114387623957?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 22, 2024</a>
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<p id="edkDGV">There were scenarios where Gray would have avoided the IL, likely working his way up to full form in an opener role. While he is progressing rapidly, he simply has not built up the work this Spring to justify such an aggressive plan.</p>
<div id="7801Ru">
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/STLCards?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#STLCards</a> RJP Sonny Gray: “They gave me some scenarios. … There were ways to not do the IL. <br><br>“But it was ultimately my decision to say, I think it’s right if we do the IL thing, … I’ve felt good … but it was just a matter of getting to a game.”<a href="https://t.co/MHvBYulRXm">https://t.co/MHvBYulRXm</a></p>— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) <a href="https://twitter.com/JohnDenton555/status/1771347200703926745?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 23, 2024</a>
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<p id="Vb2EYJ">Continuing to rehab and finishing out his Spring, in the end, was Gray’s decision. It’s also likely the safest plan. </p>
<p id="vQtCqW">When can Gray return? MLB.com’s John Denton notes that the schedule allows Gray to backdate his IL stint 3 days.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/STLCards?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#STLCards</a> RHP Sonny Gray will start on the 15-day IL and it can be backdated three days. Gray thinks his first start for the Cards will be “10 to 11 games” into the season. If all goes well, his first start for STL could come vs. the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Phillies?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Phillies</a> at Busch Stadium (April 8-10).</p>— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) <a href="https://twitter.com/JohnDenton555/status/1771277927465758722?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 22, 2024</a>
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<p id="EE42hM">The Cardinals begin the season with four games at the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> and three games against the Padres. They have a quick turnaround on April 4th with a 3:15 pm start for their home opener against the Marlins. April 5th is a day off to ensure the Cardinals get their home opening festivities in. Then it’s two more against the Marlins and three against the <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a>.</p>
<p id="YWBLMq">Obviously, Denton has already done the math for us, but the most likely scenario is that Gray starts sometime during the home series against the Phillies.</p>
<p id="oU0pkk">I would guess first two wees of the season would shake out as follows:</p>
<p id="uPfvBx">Game 1 @ Dodgers - Mikolas<br>Game 2 @ Dodgers - Gibson<br>Game 3 @ Dodgers - Lynn<br>Game 4 @ Dodgers - Matz<br>Game 5 @ Padres - Thompson<br>Game 6 @ Padres - Mikolas<br>Game 7 @ Padres - Gibson<br>Game 8 Marlins - Lynn<br>Day off<br>Game 9 Marlins - Matz<br>Game 10 Marlins - Thompson<br>Game 11 Phillies - Gray</p>
<p id="nrsaf5">Such a scenario allows Gray to slide back into the #1 rotation spot. That’s not significant but it makes the counting easy. It also allows Mikolas to slide back, giving him and everyone else in the order 6 days between starts. After a tough opening travel schedule, that seems ideal and likely eliminates the need for a sixth starter after Gray’s return.</p>
<p id="hplISE">It also makes sense by both the rotation order and fan service to let Lynn have the Home Opener. </p>
<p id="nGgFLu">What does the Gray and Nootbaar news mean for the roster?</p>
<p id="SCXyXk">I updated my roster spreadsheet in light of this news:</p>
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<p id="iZY7gJ">In many ways, the Gray decision simplifies things. Now there’s no debate over Fernandez. He can make the club and there’s still space for Riley O’Brien. When Gray comes back, the Cardinals will have to send someone out. The logical choice would be Thompson, who would head to Memphis to remain stretched out as a starter.</p>
<p id="Mo8vDC">I don’t think that’s what will happen, though. I think the Cardinals will want to keep Thompson up as a long reliever behind Gray, who likely won’t be ready for 5-7 inning outings that soon in his recovery. Most likely whoever still has options and has had the most recent work from the bullpen will get sent out for a few weeks while Gray builds stamina. Or they could just send Liberatore down. Letting him start in Memphis would allow him to maintain the stamina he has built while starting this Spring. They wouldn’t have to do this with Thompson still on the roster and available for starts if someone gets hurt, but it’s a possibility.</p>
<p id="6Q5uoP">The news about Nootbaar does not change anything on the offensives side of the roster, since I already projected Noot to start the season on the IL. Siani stays. Carlson starts. Scott goes to Memphis to prove he belongs in the Majors. </p>
<p id="BN09VK">There you go! Another chance to debate Scott, Siani, and Carlson. You’re welcome, Cardinals fans.</p>
<p id="C8goxm">Happy Saturday, Viva El Birdos!</p>
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https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2024/3/23/24109385/birdos-in-brief-gray-nootbaar-to-start-season-on-ilJ. P. Hill